[BRussell]

There's been a focus on how racism is hurting Obama in the election. One estimate is that Obama is getting 6 more percent less of the vote because of it. People also talk about the Bradley effect - the tendency for some whites to tell pollsters they're going to vote for a black candidate but then actually vote for the white candidate - and how that might affect the election.

But I'm going to say that Obama's race has actually helped him more than it has hurt him. I'm sure among some people it has hurt him, but I think, on average, it has helped more.

1. Obama would not have gotten the initial attention he did if he wasn't black.
2. Many white people want to vote for a black candidate to feel good about themselves, to prove how liberal or egalitarian they are.
3. Many white people want a black president to show the world, especially after Bush, a different side of us.

[The Crook]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

1. Obama would not have gotten the initial attention he did if he wasn't black.
2. Many white people want to vote for a black candidate to feel good about themselves, to prove how liberal or egalitarian they are.
3. Many white people want a black president to show the world, especially after Bush, a different side of us.

All unfounded assumptions.

1. Obama got the attention he did primarily on the strength of his 2004 DNC Keynote Speech.

Obama's performance led to much speculation as to his place in the party and the nation's future. After Obama had left the stage, media commentators, panels of historians and political scientists on the major television networks began explicating what many began calling the "Obama phenomenon" — in Illinois and elsewhere in the country

Maybe you can argue that he wouldn't have gotten that spot without being black, but that's getting into even hazier assumptions.

2. Maybe you want to vote for a black candidate for self-congratulatory reasons, but do the poll numbers bear this out? We know already from a Stanford Poll that

Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice

(As an aside, from that poll, Republicans look like assholes. Compared to Democrats, Republicans are less likely to call blacks friendly, determined, law-abiding, hard-working, intelligent at school, smart at everyday things, good neighbors, and dependable. Republicans are more likely to consider blacks violent, boastful, complaining, lazy, and irresponsible. Jesus.)

3. Again, poll numbers?

[Chongo]

I fee a Bradley Effect™ moment coming in about 4 weeks

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by The Crook 

All unfounded assumptions.

1. Obama got the attention he did primarily on the strength of his 2004 DNC Keynote Speech.



Maybe you can argue that he wouldn't have gotten that spot without being black, but that's getting into even hazier assumptions.

2. Maybe you want to vote for a black candidate for self-congratulatory reasons, but do the poll numbers bear this out? We know already from a Stanford Poll that



(As an aside, from that poll, Republicans look like assholes. Compared to Democrats, Republicans are less likely to call blacks friendly, determined, law-abiding, hard-working, intelligent at school, smart at everyday things, good neighbors, and dependable. Republicans are more likely to consider blacks violent, boastful, complaining, lazy, and irresponsible. Jesus.)

3. Again, poll numbers?

I cited that 6-percent study in my original post. But that doesn't rule out what I'm saying. Yes, it's speculative, but that's because I haven't seen any survey or study that attempted to address it. That study identified people with negative racial attitudes and then examined the relationship between those attitudes and voting patterns. As far as I know, it wasn't designed to look for the opposite pattern.

In addition, I think now that it's down to just two candidates, his race is probably hurting more than helping. I'd imagine a white Obama would be leading McCain by an even bigger margin. But I think it played a more positive than negative role in him winning the primary.

[BRussell]

According to this gallup poll that just came out today:

While 6% of voters say they are less likely to vote for Barack Obama because of his race, 9% say they are more likely to vote for him, making the impact of his race a neutral to slightly positive factor when all voters' self-reported attitudes are taken into account.

It was interesting that among whites, Obama being black hurt him by 1%, but among non-whites it helped him by 11%.

[Indecision08]

How about religion? Have you come across any good recent polls that reflect how people evaluate that? PEW had 13% of possible voters still thinking he was a Muslim while Newsweek numbers were even higher than that a few months ago, even-though he is a Christian.
[I don't want to start a new topic. Seems to tie in here but post around if not interested.]

[Krusty]

One good point I'd read somewhere.

The "Bradley Effect" was from 1982. 26 years of older American voters dying off and 26 year's worth of newer, less racially biased American voters taking their place. I would venture to guess that there aren't a ton of voters under the age of 45 that it would be a huge deciding factor for.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by Krusty 

One good point I'd read somewhere.

The "Bradley Effect" was from 1982. 26 years of older American voters dying off and 26 year's worth of newer, less racially biased American voters taking their place. I would venture to guess that there aren't a ton of voters under the age of 45 that it would be a huge deciding factor for.

What about the black ones?

[Dakar V]

Here's something I find confusing: Just a few weeks ago some conservative poster (correctly) pointed out that there would be claims of racism if Obama lost the election.

But now I've seen a conservative poster or two site the Bradley Effect to try to throw water on Obama's current poll numbers. I don't get it. Are they trying to support future liberal pundit claims while also calling a portion of the electorate closet racists?

[vmarks]

Note that the posters aren't the same person.

two people, three opinions? possible.

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by vmarks 

Note that the posters aren't the same person.

I would have been more specific if that wasn't the case.

Originally Posted by vmarks 

two people, three opinions? possible.

Oh sure. It's the fact that the latter is occurring at all that confuses the hell out of me. The former part is to merely to note that that opinion has been was voiced for all to see and consider.

[Krusty]

Originally Posted by Laminar 

What about the black ones?

Black voters have in recent decades voted overwhelmingly for the Democratic nominee for President. There really isn't a great number of votes Obama stands to gain from the black community that wouldn't have gone to Democratic nominee of any racial origin.