[zeldaren]

Hi!

This is my first time to post in this section. I have posted MAC questions before. I hope that it is ok to post this information. I did read the rules and it seemed as if it would be permitted. Right now our country is going through a kind of political civil war. I am not 100% sure the election was stolen. But I have grave concerns based on everything I have read:

"Thank you and welcome to the WE DO NOT CONCEDE Coalition._ This is a
nonpartisan grassroots campaign._ No time to lose._ We can fight the
results of this election and plan to on December 7, 2004 at
statehouses in 5 key states._ Look for an upcoming announcement on
planned protests soon - prepare yourself now._ We've received a huge
response so far and there many concerned citizens like yourself who
have contacted me to join this coalition._ I very much appreciate all
the meaningful remarks and stories being sent my way._
Here's the initial plan:

1.___ Unite in your communities._ Contact your friends, family, email
lists, groups to help get the word out about this growing coalition._
Designate a point of contact._ Remember, there is strength in numbers.

2.___ Contact media with letters to the editor urging your community
to NOT CONCEDE their votes._

3.___ Be prepared to take further action very soon (protests,
national boycott, etc)._ Let's keep in touch._


4.___ Do not be dissuaded by Bush supporters._ This is not about them
or political candidates, it's about OUR VOTES and having them
counted._ Stay focused._

DO NOT CONCEDE YOUR VOTE TO BUSH.

Please help spread the word.__


Best,
Kat L'Estrange
Eugene OR


To join this coalition, send an email to [email protected] with I DO NOT
CONCEDE MY VOTE in the subject line and contact information in the
body._

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

CONTACT:__
Kat L'Estrange, organizer_ [email protected]
Jonathan Simon, statistical data, [email protected]

DEJA VIEW: ANOTHER STOLEN ELECTION?_ NOT THIS TIME!

November 6, 2004:_ Concerned citizens are calling for a thorough
investigation into the discrepancies identified in the election
results between exit polling data provided by independent polling
organizations and the data supplied to the national networks by
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International in the final
electoral vote analysis, which awarded Bush the presidency on
November 3, 2004._ Sen. John Kerry conceded the election to Bush, but
a growing number of concerned citizens believe the votes in this
election are not his to concede._ The votes belong to the legal
voters who cast them, and existing discrepancies may point to
possible wrongdoing by those who counted them._ Organizations or
individuals who support this public outcry are encouraged to get
involved.

Exit polling on election day as reported by John Zogby of Zogby
International and other independent exit polling organizations show a
different result earlier on in the contest than what was reported
later on by 6 national networks, ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, Fox News Channel
and The Associated Press, who received their exit polling data from
Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, a consortium formed
after Voter News Service was disbanded and blamed for the networks'
error in prematurely calling Florida for Gore in the 2000 election._
Exit polling using statistical analysis is an important part of our
election process, providing necessary checks against the tabulated
results, and a reasonable amount of protection against vote fraud.

According to the networks, Edison Media Research had a direct
connection to county election results across the nation via computer
modems._ Although early polling data obtained by Edison/Mitofsky
appear to be accurate, as the situation unfolded later into the
night, the exit polls were combined with and therefore contaminated
by the tabulated results, ultimately becoming a mirror of the
apparent actual vote._ Jonathan Simon of Alliance for Democracy
notes, "Statistical discrepancies were identified in key battleground
states that exceeded the margin of error of the exit polls. In Ohio,
for instance, a shift of 3.1% toward Bush converted a 52% - 48% exit
poll "victory" for Kerry into a 51% - 49% electoral "victory" for
Bush._ Other critical states showed similar anomalous results, each
of which should occur less than 5% of the time._ In the group of 12
critical states selected for analysis, exit poll vs. tabulated vote
shifts exceeded the polls' margin of error in 4 cases, which
according to statistical analysis would occur only 0.2% (or one five-
hundredth) of the time in the absence of significant mistabulation of
votes."_ Simon also notes that exit polling appears inexplicably to
have been significantly more accurate in nonbattleground states, than
in the states that were crucial to a Bush victory._

Rather than objectively exploring reasons for these identified
discrepancies, the networks now glibly claim exit polling based on
scientific methodology is completely unreliable, and have all but
forgotten that there was a deep and widespread concern about the
reliability and security of the vote tabulating apparatus leading up
to this election._

A statement by Wally O'Dell, the CEO of Diebold, providers of Ohio's
electronic voting equipment in August 2003, may have foreshadowed the
November 2 results, at least in Ohio._ O'Dell, acting as a Republican
fundraiser at the time wrote, "I am committed to helping Ohio deliver
its electoral votes to the president."_ This statement fueled even
greater concern among Americans about the trend toward use of
electronic voting equipment without paper receipts, and central
tabulation equipment owned, operated, and protected from scrutiny by
partisan corporations._ George Bush seemed to take O'Dell's pledge at
face value, hardly deigning to campaign in Ohio, which was a
confusing strategy to many pundits given the state's cliffhanger
closeness and critical importance.

Additional anomalies have been recognized, such as a record voter
turnout witnessed in Tuesday's election, a fact which typically
promises a positive outcome for the Democratic Party, having had no
such effect, again perplexing analysts across the political
spectrum._ Problems with continued voter disenfranchisement in this
election through questionable "caging lists" and vote "spoilage" have
been reported by BBC investigative journalist, Greg Palast, in
Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio._ The nation is divided, but it is
believed that Americans have been trending toward change in the White
House since the 2000 election, not toward greater conservatism or
support of George Bush's policies, and that exit polling by
independent pollsters on November 2 reflected this change.

Americans concerned about voter fraud in Election 2004 are urged not
to concede their vote to George Bush, and to prepare for further pro-
active measures designed to empower millions of legal voters who
continue to be disenfranchised by party politics._ For more
information or to join the WE DO NOT CONCEDE coalition of concerned
citizens and organizations, send an email to Kat L'Estrange at
[email protected] with I DO NOT CONCEDE MY VOTE in the subject line and
contact information in the body._ For information regarding
statistical data in this release, please contact Jonathan Simon at
[email protected]._ Visit www.donotconcede.com for continued
updates (after 11/07/04)._

###


Critical States (12)
Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll
ET, and "Red" Shift%

Colorado 49.9 48.1 2515 12:24 AM 2.6%
Florida 49.8 49.7 2846 12:21 2.5
(Florida 51.4 47.6 2862 1:01 0.6 )
Michigan 46.5 51.5 2452 12:21 1.0
Minnesota 44.5 53.5 2178 12:23 3.0
Nebraska 62.5 36.0 785 12:22 4.3
(Nebraska "critical" because of ES&S dominance and history)
Nevada 47.9 49.2 2116 12:23 2.2
New Hamp. 44.1 54.9 1849 12:24 4.9
New Mex. 47.5 50.1 1951 12:24 1.8

Ohio 47.9 52.1 1963 7:32 PM 3.1
(Ohio 50.9 48.6 2020 1:41 AM 0.3)

Penn 45.4 54.1 1930 12:21 3.4
Wisconsin 48.8 49.2 2223 12:21 (-)0.3
Iowa 48.4 49.7 2502 12:23 2.0

12 (Critical) State Average Red Shift +2.5%

Note that because of rolling updates, some states may have been
relatively pure at c. 12:20-12:25, while others may already have been
slightly corrupted. My guess is that most of these were still OK at
these times.

Non-Critical States (35)
Exit Poll Data Bush% then Kerry%, # of respondents, then time of poll
ET, and "Red" Shift%

Alabama 58.1 40.5 730 12:17 AM 4.2
Alaska 57.8 38.8 910 01:00 AM 4.0 (keep in mind AK time zone, this is
still early)
Arizona 52.8 46.7 1859 12:19 2.5
Arkansas 52.9 46.1 1402 12:22 1.1
Calif 46.6 54.6 1919 12:23 (-)1.5

CT 40.9 57.7 872 12:22 3.4
(CT 44.4 54.7 872 12:53) 0.2

DC 8.2 89.8 795 12:22 0.3
Delaware 40.7 57.3 770 12:22 4.8
Georgia 56.6 42.9 1536 12:22 2.2
Hawaii 46.7 53.3 499 12:22 (-)1.2
Idaho 65.7 32.9 559 12:22 2.6
Illinois 42.4 56.6 1392 12:23 1.6
Indiana 58.4 40.6 926 12:22 1.6
Kansas 64.5 34.1 654 12:22 (-)2.7
Kentucky 58.4 40.2 1034 12:22 0.9
Louisiana 54.7 43.9 1669 12:21 2.1
Maine 44.3 53.8 1968 12:22 0.8
Maryland 42.3 56.2 1000 12:22 0.5
Mass 32.9 65.2 889 12:22 3.7
Miss 56.5 43.0 798 12:22 3.3
Missouri 52.0 47.0 2158 12:21 1.5
Montana 58.0 37.5 640 12:22 (-)0.3
ND 64.4 32.6 649 12:22 (-)2.4
OK 65.0 34.6 1539 12:23 0.8
Oregon 47.9 50.3 1064 12:22 (-)1.3
RI 34.9 62.7 809 12:22 3.4
SC 53.4 45.1 1735 12:24 4.4
SD 61.0 36.5 1495 12:24 (-)1.8
Tenn 58.0 40.6 1774 12:23 (-)1.7
Texas 62.2 36.3 1671 12:22 (-)2.0
Utah 68.1 29.1 798 12:22 2.5
Vermont 33.3 63.7 685 12:22 5.2
Wash 44.0 54.1 2123 12:38 1.6
WV 54.0 44.5 1722 12:24 1.8
Wyoming 65.5 30.9 684 12:22 2.7

35 (NonCritical) State Average Red Shift +1.4

The following state data was obtained too late and highly
contaminated with actual tabulation results:
NJ 46.2 52.8 1520 12:50 (-)0.2
NY 40.9 58.2 1452 12:52 (-)0.4
NC 56.5 42.7 2167 12:48 (-)0.4
Virginia 54.1 45.4 1431 12:56 (-)0.4

Important Points To Note: The average sample size for the critical
states is 2109, for the noncritical states 1192, roughly half the
size. All else being equal, higher sample size correlates with
smaller margin of error, greater accuracy. And yet: the average Red
Shift in the noncritical states is 1.4%, but in the critical states
it is 2.5%. Why? �Jonathan Simon


WE DO NOT CONCEDE Coalition endorsed by:_
Michael Rectenwald, Ph.D.
Citizens For Legitimate Government
www.legitgov.org, [email protected]
Mike Hersh, www.MikeHersh.com
Media Watch Project - http://democrats.com/media
MikeHersh.com - http://www.mikehersh.com
BushOccupation.com - http://www.bushoccupation.com
Oppose Bush Items: - http://www.cafeshops.com/antibush04


To endorse the WE DO NOT CONCEDE coalition, send an email to
[email protected] with ENDORSE WE DO NOT CONCEDE in the subject line and
contact info in the body.
Visit www.donotconcede.com for continued updates (after 11/7/04)"







_

[rjenkinson]

-r.

[NYCFarmboy]

[Shaddim]

Umm, yeah, you do that. However, while you're NOT conceding, we'll pass the legislation we want. It would be better if you helped us with this process, told us your POV so that we can come to unified consensus. However, since you're living in a delusion (there's an interesting irony here), we'll just have to do what we feel is best. Suit yourselves.

[aberdeenwriter]

I do not concede that Kirstin actually shot J.R. Ewing.

However, I do know Kerry conceded the election.

Next?

[Langdon]

It is Mac not MAC.

MAC is a makeup company.

[ThinkInsane]

Yeah, with an army of lawyers waiting in the wings in the key states, do you really think Kerry and the DNC would have conceded if they had a snowballs chance of pulling it off? Or do you think all those lawyers standing by like C. Montgomery Burns' legal rapid response team were just to try and scare the GOP into playing nice? If there was a way to score the win, you bet they would have been all over it. But if you want to waste your time, be my guest. I give you props for at least actually trying to do something instead of pointless name calling and hysterical dramatics.

And since when did exit polls get the reputation of being so accurate that they are good grounds to contest the ballot. I thought they had gained a reputation as something of a joke. Learn something new every day.

[Millennium]

There is one person whose opinion on whether Kerry should concede actually matters: Kerry himself. His opinion is well-known by now.

[Buckaroo]

Originally posted by zeldaren:

DO NOT CONCEDE YOUR VOTE TO BUSH.

Excuse me. We voted for Bush. We didn't concede nothing.



Wake up and smell the coffee dude. I'll bet you believe aliens from space have been landing on Earth and conducting experiments on your butt.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

[Millennium]

From the bushoccupation.org front page:

To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

This should be interesting...

That the exit polls were wrong,

I believe exit polling to be a fundamentally flawed practice, so the concept of them being wrong does not seem to be far-fatched art all.

that Zogby's 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning Ohio and Florida were wrong (he was exactly right in his 2000 final poll);

Zogby's predictions from the day before were dead wrong in every single battleground state. Why would his polls a day later be any different?

that incumbent rule #1 -undecideds break for the challenger- was wrong;

This is a rule of thumb, not a law of physics. Of course it fails sometimes.

That the approval rating rule -an incumbent with less than 50% approval will most likely lose the election- was wrong;

Again, a rule of thumb, not a law of physics.

that it was just a coincidence that the exit polls were correct where there was a paper trail and incorrect (+5% for Bush) where there was no paper trail;

Actually, yes, I do. The statistics on this don't even show much of a correlative link, much less a causal one.

that the surge in new young voters had no positive effect for Kerry;

Given that the most important pro-Kerry demographic -the youngest voters- also had the smallest increase in turnout, this seems quite plausible. The turnout in young voters was countered by the larger turnout in older voters. I don't see what's so hard about this.

that Kerry did worse than Gore against an opponent who lost the support of scores of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000;

Kerry did not do worse than Gore in terms of raw numbers. The record turnout of voters this year produced record numbers of votes both for and against the incumbent. It is quite plausible that the incumbent's turnout might increase in greater numbers, given the massive efforts by his opponent to increase turnout. Republicans are not blind; they see these efforts, and they react.

that voting machines made by Republicans with no paper trail and with no peer review, which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be easily hackable, were not tampered with in this election

There is no evidence of tampering. I will agree that these machines were developed according to methodologies completely contrary to what a good voting system should be, and they should be scrapped and a better design put into place. Nevertheless, there is no evidence that the machines were actually tampered with.

[RAILhead]

How many times am I going to have to post this pic today?

[RAILhead]