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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > Nice Vote-by-Mail system y'got there. Hope nothing happens to it.

Nice Vote-by-Mail system y'got there. Hope nothing happens to it. (Page 2)
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reader50
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Aug 18, 2020, 04:29 PM
 
DeJoy has folded. USPS crisis: postmaster general to suspend all changes until after election
In a statement on Tuesday, DeJoy, a major Republican donor without prior USPS experience, said post office hours would not change, mail processing facilities would not close and equipment, including mailboxes, would not be removed. He also said USPS would continue to approve overtime.
I think it got too hot for him. He'd been summoned for questioning by committees in both houses of Congress. 20+ states were about to file suit today. The USPS inspector general was investigating the changes. Nonstop coverage from the press, leaks and comments from current & former employees. Oh, and DeJoy had a protest crowd outside his house over the weekend.

If investigators found a deliberate connection to the election, this could have turned into criminal charges. So I think the risks just got too high for him.
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Aug 18, 2020, 05:01 PM
 
Now, he needs to be pressured to put the machines back.
     
subego
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Aug 19, 2020, 07:07 AM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
PG DeJoy announced today he’s putting his restructuring on-hold until after the election.

The cynical side of me thinks this just means he’s done just enough damage, in the right places, to have the desired effect. Anyway, yay.
I was pretty sure something like this would happen. It’s frowned upon to do anything 60 days before an election which can be seen as messing with the scales.

Remember, this was one of the policies Comey had to wrestle with in 2016.
     
subego
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Aug 19, 2020, 09:53 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Has it happened before within the last, say, 50 years that the USPS could not guarantee that mail-in ballots would not be delivered on time to be counted?
By the definition you’re using, the answer is yes.

They did it in 2016, and again in 2018. So, we’re at three elections in a row.
     
subego
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Aug 19, 2020, 03:18 PM
 
Here are my questions for the board, because the Post sure as **** won’t ask them.

Do we deserve better than delivery of mail-in ballots taking a week?

Votes will be mailed after the deadline. Some will be counted, some will not. What do we consider these? Votes as a quantum phenomenon is not an idea society has grappled with.
     
reader50
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Aug 19, 2020, 03:45 PM
 
I'm normally fine with states controlling the election details, with the feds setting a few standards. Like eVote machine security standards.

However, conditions are unusual this time. With a national-level (and global) disease interfering with voting patterns. I could see the feds requiring ballots postmarked by Election day having to be accepted up to a week later. But only as a one-time intervention, during a national crisis.

The problem I see is the foot-in-door problem. That given the chance even once, the feds would dictate election norms every election thereafter. Declaring an emergency each time if need be. Witness Trump's fake emergency declaration to divert military funds to the Wall. Or consideration to invoke the defense production act to force power companies to buy coal.

All things considered, I'd rather the feds not intervene in election terms. Those are for state legislators & governors to hash out. Some people will get screwed. Maybe a lot of people. But the alternative looks worse - a permanent loss of local control.
     
subego
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Aug 19, 2020, 03:53 PM
 
My knee-jerk response is “postmarked by Election Day” is the non-negotiable cutoff.
     
reader50
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Aug 19, 2020, 04:06 PM
 
Update on USPS. DeJoy hasn't folded as much as it appeared.
DeJoy announced yesterday he would suspend certain planned operational changes, but he did not address the cost-cutting actions he had already taken.

“This morning, I spoke with Postmaster General DeJoy and conveyed to him that his announcement is not a solution and is misleading,” Pelosi said in a statement.

“The Postmaster General frankly admitted that he had no intention of replacing the sorting machines, blue mailboxes and other key mail infrastructure that have been removed and that plans for adequate overtime, which is critical for the timely delivery of mail, are not in the works.”
It looks like he got most of the damage done. Then announced he'd avoid further changes until after the Election. Um, thanks?
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Aug 19, 2020, 04:19 PM
 
Pretty much as I had feared. This administration is an alley full of blazing dumpsters.
     
subego
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Aug 19, 2020, 06:23 PM
 
Sorting machines... which he had nothing to do with.
Blue mailboxes... which he had nothing to do with.
Other key mail infrastructure that have been removed... what the **** is she even talking about? My bet is he had nothing to do with it.
Plans for adequate overtime... maybe this is something.



Maybe.



Edit: blue box removal is planned at least 30 days in advance, unless people start dropping M80s in them.
( Last edited by subego; Aug 19, 2020 at 07:29 PM. )
     
subego
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Aug 19, 2020, 07:21 PM
 
In case anyone wants the recent history of the Postal Service’s timeliness with regards to delivering ballots.


2020 Election - Postal Bulletin - 2/13/2020 - Page 5

“The Postal Service recommends that voters mail their ballots at least 1 week before the due date to account for any unforeseen events or weather issues.”


2018 Election - Postal Bulletin - 4/12/2018 - Page 5

“The Postal Service recommends that voters mail their ballots at least 1 week before the due date to account for any unforeseen events or weather issues.”


2016 Election - Postal Bulletin - 3/17/2016 - Page 5

“The Postal Service recommends mailing ballots early to account for any unforeseen events or weather issues and to allow for timely receipt by election officials.”

Here is a further citation for 2016

“Individuals should send their completed absentee ballots at least one week in advance of their state deadlines to ensure the safe, timely delivery of their vote.”


I didn’t check 2014, but in 2012 the Postal Service asked for less time.
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 20, 2020, 04:44 AM
 
@subego
A postal bulletin directed at the general population is quite different from writing directly to the the states's Secretaries of State where it warns of that mail-in ballots may not even be delivered in time (cf. page 2, third paragraph). You seem to argue that because the wording is the same or similar to postal bulletins, the situation is similar. I think this is ignoring the entire context of why 2020 is quite different than 2012 or 2016. Least of which that we are in the middle of a pandemic: although words like “Covid” or “pandemic” are nowhere to be found in the letters, it is clear that we are in the middle of an “unforeseen circumstance” and the probability of actual delays at scale is very different from, say, 2016 or 2012. Many people are experiencing delays even now, so this really isn't just a theoretical or impacting people who send in their ballots last-minute.

In your previous posts you emphasized the timeline of events when it comes to actions taken by the USPS, and seem to claim that many of the decisions we criticize in this thread have been taken before June 15th (that is, before DeJoy became Postmaster General). I think this is overly narrow and does not take the relevant context into account. Congress, specifically the GOP is at fault for not allocating sufficient funds to help the USPS to make sure it can weather the Covid-19 pandemic and ensure the election goes smoothly — nobody here is saying “everything is DeJoy's fault”. If we take DeJoy's memo that you linked to in the beginning of this thread from July 10th at face value, he is at the very least continuing this effort, but from the looks of it is even more aggressively “cutting costs”. If anything, he has accelerated these measures, exchanged lots of experienced people at the top and is changing the engines of this big aircraft in the middle of a critical part of the flight. And I think it matters that the US is in the middle of a second Covid-19 wave, whereas people may have been optimistic in May that the pandemic might be under control until November. It is DeJoy's responsibility to react to these changed circumstances and make sure mail-in ballots are delivered without delay on a large scale.

Lastly, I think it matters a great deal that Trump has openly said he opposes giving additional funds to the USPS because he falsely claims there is wide-spread voter fraud with mail-in ballots. I wouldn't put it past Trump if he asked DeJoy to not worry too much about mounting delays in the delivery of ballots. And given that DeJoy was a big-time donor and has financial stakes in competitors to the USPS, I wouldn't put it past him to be eager to comply.
( Last edited by OreoCookie; Aug 20, 2020 at 06:09 AM. )
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
subego
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Aug 20, 2020, 08:43 AM
 
Just so I know what I’m looking for, is page 2, 3rd paragraph from the warning letters?
     
subego
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Aug 21, 2020, 08:46 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
whereas people may have been optimistic in May that the pandemic might be under control until November.
May was when the Postal Service sent their first letter to election authorities saying deliveries would take a week, which is supposedly stunningly unprecedented.

If they were worried about these stunningly unprecedented conditions in May, then Megan Brennan had ample reason to cancel removing sorting machines, yet she didn’t.

Which one? Were they optimistic in May, or warning of a dire emergency?
( Last edited by subego; Aug 21, 2020 at 09:30 AM. )
     
subego
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Aug 21, 2020, 12:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Lastly, I think it matters a great deal that Trump has openly said he opposes giving additional funds to the USPS because he falsely claims there is wide-spread voter fraud with mail-in ballots. I wouldn't put it past Trump if he asked DeJoy to not worry too much about mounting delays in the delivery of ballots. And given that DeJoy was a big-time donor and has financial stakes in competitors to the USPS, I wouldn't put it past him to be eager to comply.
Trump and the Republicans offered $1 billion to the Postal Service, and the Democrats refused because they demand $3 billion.

It’s certainly fair to note the disparity, but to describe this as opposing giving additional funds is a stretch.
     
subego
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Aug 21, 2020, 09:06 PM
 
It occurred to me the Electoral College actually helps insulate from the damage of a co-opted Post Office in a presidential election.

With the Electoral College, interference with the mail only works if it can flip a state.


Extreme example: if we peel 3 million votes for Hillary off California in 2016, California still goes to Hillary, but Trump just won the majority vote.
     
Waragainstsleep
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Aug 23, 2020, 05:27 AM
 
Theres a reasonable chance our current government rigged postal voting to get their huge majority. A number of elections were won by margins that were just shy of the number of conservative postal votes.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
andi*pandi
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Aug 23, 2020, 12:00 PM
 
found this on twitter, it oddly makes sense. The disruption of the postal service is not just about disrupting 2020, but ensuring no one can ever prove 2016 was disrupted.

https://twitter.com/michaelharriot/s...66864859934721

Everyone believes Trump is using the USPS to sway the 2020 election.

I don’t.

I think this is about the 2016 election.

Everything you're about to read has been publicly reported. I'm finna show you something.

<experts> all came to 3 conclusions.

1. Our current election systems can be hacked

2. The only way to ensure a secure vote is hand-marked paper ballots.

I know that’s only 2 things (I’ll get to the third)
     
subego
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Aug 23, 2020, 02:40 PM
 
Twitter essays make me feel like I’m in the Burma Shave hell dimension.
     
el chupacabra
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Aug 23, 2020, 07:40 PM
 
… .
( Last edited by el chupacabra; Jan 5, 2024 at 03:03 AM. )
     
subego
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Aug 23, 2020, 07:47 PM
 
I actually like the Post Office, I just hate mail.

Stamps are cool.
     
reader50
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Aug 23, 2020, 08:02 PM
 
el chupacabra, USPS consistently rates as the most popular government service. Also, how would it help to fire all USPS employees so they can get minimum-wage jobs sorting garbage? I expect most make more than minimum wage today, so that would downgrade perhaps 500,000 American citizens from better wages to minimum wage. What a huge hit to the middle class.

Voting fraud is almost non-existent in the US. Did your friends all mail ballots close to the election, in states that don't accept ballots received after election day? Note that since they were returned, they weren't intercepted and changed. So what you mention wasn't fraud.

ps - are all your friends Republicans? If you don't have any Democrat friends, that would explain why all your examples were Rs.
     
subego
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Aug 23, 2020, 08:42 PM
 
     
andi*pandi
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Aug 23, 2020, 09:25 PM
 
There are many reasons why every other day mail would not work. Privatized mail delivery would spike in cost. Small businesses and rural residents rely on it for things that you can't get electronically: prescriptions, goods, etc. An example is all the dead chicks that farmers have received in the last two weeks, normally the shipment takes 2-3 days and the chicks arrive alive.

The only people who want to privatize the USPS are those who run private package delivery systems. They are salivating.
     
el chupacabra
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Aug 23, 2020, 09:28 PM
 
… .
( Last edited by el chupacabra; Jan 5, 2024 at 03:03 AM. )
     
reader50
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Aug 23, 2020, 10:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
Snopes is incorrect.
Glad to know this. I'd long wondered about them, until someone on the internet gave the definitive answer. Also theirs' was only one of the google links I found. Perhaps a link to how prevalent voting fraud is or used to be? There have been long stretches when I mostly read the tech news. But I've periodically read general news for decades. And I don't recall stories about vote fraud, must less specific to mail-in ballots.

It sounds like you blame USPS employees (600K+ of them) for physical junk mail. Businesses pay USPS to deliver that stuff. Businesses that compete for customers. A monopoly need not advertise, but honest businesses need to. As annoying as junk mail is, it's free enterprise operating as it should. And 600,000+ people are making a living in the process. Privatizing the USPS would not reduce advertising at all, because a private USPS would still be paid to deliver the spam.

Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
The established ruling class doesnt like Trump much because he's hard to get along with, interfering in their collusion against the people, and exposing government & the office of president for the joke it is.
As Prez, Trump is the ultimate example of the ruling class today. He cannot be the outside rebel, while sitting behind the most important desk in the world. But he is hard to get along with (i do read the news), tends to ignore people when polling says the majority are against one of his policies, and does expose the government & president for the joke they are. Hmm ... it sounds like we're close to agreement.
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Aug 24, 2020, 09:12 AM
 
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Aug 24, 2020, 09:25 AM
 
     
andi*pandi
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Aug 24, 2020, 10:38 AM
 
Good on them for reinstalling! I saw a video of some machinery though that had been ruined when it was pulled out. Cords cut, dismantled, left in the rain.
     
Waragainstsleep
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Aug 24, 2020, 11:17 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
The only people who want to privatize the USPS are those who run private package delivery systems. They are salivating.
So Trump screws with the USPS to rig his re-election, then blames the election screw up on the USPS and uses that to justify selling it off. Probably to himself.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
reader50
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Aug 24, 2020, 01:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Not all of this will be reversible without a lot of money. I'd wondered what was happening to the removed machines. From Thorz links:
News reports from Delaware, Michigan and Florida showed disassembled sorting machines in dumpsters or just sitting on the ground.
It looks like individual post offices did whatever worked. If they had space, machines were moved against the wall. If no spare floor space, they ended up outside.

This reasonably fits the definition of vandalism. DeJoy should be billed personally for the cost to restore USPS sorting capability.
     
reader50
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Aug 24, 2020, 02:45 PM
 
Some Republican groups, including the RNC, are planning "poll watching" squads. Historically deployed in minority areas to intimidate voters. They are usually off-duty (or retired) officers/vets in uniforms and with guns. Pulling voters out of line, demanding IDs, and potentially sending them home.
“This raises the potential that we could see a repeat of classic intimidatory tactics of past years – police cars outside polling stations, billboards warning of the penalties for vote fraud posted in Black or Latino neighborhoods...”
If you cannot win an election, the honorable path is to concede when the final numbers come in. Or ... there are other options.
The RNC also plans to train hundreds of lawyers ahead of November. They will have access to a $20m legal fund and will fan out across battleground states in expectation of fierce legal wrangling that could drag on well beyond election day raising spurious fraud allegations or claiming irregularities in mail-in voting.
I'm not clear on how you "train lawyers" - that's the job of law schools. I suspect a misquote - they plan to "retain" hundreds of lawyers. That's how you put lawyers on any job - you pay them.

BTW, about the constant complaints of voter fraud, from the party expecting to lose big in this election. The Brennan Center for Justice has performed an analysis debunking vote fraud in the United States. With links to numerous studies, and court opinions supporting the conclusion. The posting is from 2017, well before the current election's rhetoric got going.
     
subego
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Aug 24, 2020, 03:20 PM
 
I generally don’t question analyses which show voter fraud to be close to non-existent, especially when it comes to in-person fraud, which is stunningly inefficient.

When it comes to a situation where all of the sudden the expected number of mail-in ballots goes up by a couple orders of magnitude, I see that as a novel fraud vector.

That’s not something I want to ignore, regardless of Trump’s propensity to distort the truth of it.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Aug 24, 2020, 03:26 PM
 
What’s “novel” about mail-in voting is that it’s LESS prone to fraud, because it leaves a paper trail that can be verified at any time.

There are people trying to push electronic voting machines over here, too, and they scare the crap out of me. Entrusting the most fundamental aspect of our democracy to a system with no option for double-checking or verification if anything goes wrong — or even a way of seeing that something has gone wrong — seems insane to me.
     
subego
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Aug 24, 2020, 03:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
What’s “novel” about mail-in voting is that it’s LESS prone to fraud, because it leaves a paper trail that can be verified at any time.

There are people trying to push electronic voting machines over here, too, and they scare the crap out of me. Entrusting the most fundamental aspect of our democracy to a system with no option for double-checking or verification if anything goes wrong — or even a way of seeing that something has gone wrong — seems insane to me.
I was comparing (an unprecedented quantity of) mail-in votes to in-person, paper ballots.

At least in Chicago, we only have electronic machines because of the Americans with Disabilities Act.

Thankfully, electronic machines have to contend with the hurdle they’re very expensive compared to the briefcase booths in use here.


Edit: one time, all the suitcase booths were full, so I found a table and marked my ballot there. Try that with an electronic machine.

I can thank hanging chads for that one. We used to use punch ballots, but switched to pens.
     
reader50
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Aug 24, 2020, 04:01 PM
 
subego, I definitely agree about eVoting. The machines are improving - the ones with a paper printout are especially encouraging. But I'm personally still using paper.

All indications are online voting would be a security nightmare. Connection security has improved, since Snowden prompted universal rollout of HTTPS. But server-side security, and voter verification remain black eyes. All need to be addressed before we could allow even a limited rollout.

However, absentee voting has been around for decades. California allows it for anyone, and has posted statistics showing how it's been used over time. 25% of votes were absentee by 1998, 50% by a decade later. By 2018, it was 2/3 of votes. I remember being shocked the first time they printed those stats on the back of an election mailer. It had already passed 50% at the time.

According to WikiPedia, postal voting accounted for 1/4 of nationwide votes in 2016. It's definitely been tested extensively.
     
subego
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Aug 24, 2020, 04:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
However, systems near their capacity limit behave badly when pushed beyond 100%. And it's worrying that USPS is removing capacity in advance of an expected increase in volume.
It was pointed out to me the Postal Service gets maximum volume at Christmas.

Maximum volume is not the same as maximum capacity, but we can infer things about capacity based on how well they handle the maximum volume. As far as I know, they’ve never had a problem.

Mail-in ballot volume is a drop in the ocean compared to Christmas volume.
     
subego
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Aug 24, 2020, 04:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
It's definitely been tested extensively.
Well, that’s obviously a good thing, and completely nullifies my point about fraud, which was based on an assumption it had far less penetration.

However, it also means an unprecedented use of mail-in voting will only be adding a fraction of what the Postal Service is used to. There’s not that much ground to cover between what we have now, and all votes being by mail.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Aug 24, 2020, 05:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I: one time, all the suitcase booths were full, so I found a table and marked my ballot there. Try that with an electronic machine. .
That would be illegal here.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Aug 24, 2020, 05:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
found this on twitter, it oddly makes sense. The disruption of the postal service is not just about disrupting 2020, but ensuring no one can ever prove 2016 was disrupted.

https://twitter.com/michaelharriot/s...66864859934721
Apart from the fact that this is a complete misuse of Twitter to do the opposite of what its entire point was supposed to be:

Can anyone weigh in on how plausible this is?
     
subego
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Aug 24, 2020, 05:56 PM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
That would be illegal here.
On what grounds? I’m totally curious.

It’s probably illegal here, but nobody cared. The place was swamped, and for my own part, I didn’t consider the due secrecy of my vote compromised.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Aug 25, 2020, 03:54 AM
 
German voting law is absolutely explicit that, while you are free to share your intent before and after the fact, the actual act of voting MUST be in secret, and the ballot must be folded in such a way as to not reveal how you voted. Only a single person is allowed in a booth, the only exception being people with disabilities. Taking a photo of your filled in ballot is illegal.

The idea is that whatever external or public pressure you may be under, the actual act of voting itself will not be subject to that pressure, and there is no way to force that.

Background is obviously that we have this thing about dictatorships.
     
subego
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Aug 25, 2020, 04:52 AM
 
Interesting!

We have similar laws with similar intents, but they’re starting to get vestigial.

For example, here’s a Chicago style “booth”:



At my polling place, these are jammed right next to each other. Due privacy is kinda on the honor system to begin with, so no one batted an eye when I did it out in the open.

Photos are a big no-no, though. Less due to dictatorships than because we have a storied history of bribery.

Edit: originally, with punch ballots, they gave each voter their own envelope to hide the ballot, and votes weren’t counted until the end of the day, so the ballot was still pretty secret. Now we get giant folders to hide our giant ballots as we walk to the counting machine, but then the ballot gets taken out in front of everybody and counted, so a voter can confirm an undervote. This is another policy brought about by hanging chadgate.
( Last edited by subego; Aug 25, 2020 at 02:46 PM. )
     
Spheric Harlot
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Aug 25, 2020, 05:48 AM
 
Wow.

Another thing that confuses me is how you register as a voter for a specific party. I realise it’s not binding, but what the hell is up with that?
     
subego
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Aug 25, 2020, 06:26 AM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
Wow.

Another thing that confuses me is how you register as a voter for a specific party. I realise it’s not binding, but what the hell is up with that?
I’m at a loss on that one. Thankfully, Illinois doesn’t require it. I’ve never been registered to a party.
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Aug 25, 2020, 07:25 AM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
Another thing that confuses me is how you register as a voter for a specific party. I realise it’s not binding, but what the hell is up with that?
Here in Indiana, you don't have to register under a particular party to vote in the general elections. I've never declared a party affiliation. Indiana, though, does not have open primaries. You have to declare a party and can only vote on that party's slate.* This is the main thing that keeps me from voting in the primaries. I just refuse to go on any record as being aligned with any party.

* - this is also the reason I think the political parties should foot the bill for running the primaries.
     
subego
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Aug 25, 2020, 07:33 AM
 
We have the same thing, but for all intents and purposes the GOP doesn’t exist in Chicago. The Democratic primary is the general election.
     
Thorzdad  (op)
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Aug 25, 2020, 10:52 AM
 
That bright red glow in the sky to your east? That's Indiana.
     
subego
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Aug 25, 2020, 01:00 PM
 
I thought it was legal fireworks.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Aug 26, 2020, 10:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
We have the same thing, but for all intents and purposes the GOP doesn’t exist in Chicago. The Democratic primary is the general election.
Ah, the primaries are a sensible explanation.

Over here, you don’t „register“ to vote. You need to register your address when you move, and you’re automatically eligible to vote in that district. Everybody gets the official invitation, info mail, and absentee ballot request form, as well as a demo ballot to look over, and you just have to show up at your polling station with valid ID.

Party candidates are voted on by party members. Nobody who isn’t explicitly a party member gets to decide who the candidate will be (obvious exception being court decisions, like when candidates are excluded from a party and contest the expulsion — as is currently happening all across Germany within the AfD, the right-wing populist don’t-call-then-Nazis-even-though-individual-members-can-legally-be-called-„fascist“ party of Covidiots, Trump cultists and Russian propaganda).

Registering for a party to be eligible to vote on that party’s candidates in primaries makes sense when you have a system of voluntary voter registration in the first place.

To me, that seems like an extra hurdle to what should be the most accessible basic task of a democratic citizen. But that’s just IMO.
     
 
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