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Chuckit · Jul 5, 2007, 10:24 PM

Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey

What you are missing is that there are a whole lot of mutual funds out there that don't get beaten by the market, because they track the market. The S&P 500 is only one. There are index funds that track the total stock market, different market caps, foreign markets, different bond markets, the works.

That's true, but index funds are a small subset of mutual funds. When people look for "mutual funds," they usually aren't looking for index funds, they're looking for a managed fund, and those are the ones that often fail. If you're investing in a fund that basically is the market, then sure, you're not going to get beat. That's reasonable.

sdilley14 · Jul 23, 2007, 11:28 PM

Well I bought 107 shares of Apple at $119. I'd say it's done pretty well so far. Analysts moved projected peak from $140 to $160 a while back. It's sitting at about $144 right now with earnings report coming out on Wednesday. How is everyone feeling about it right now? I'm confident it'll stay at atleast $145, but I'm wondering if it'll keep moving upwards towards (or past $160) or hover for a while now. The tech sector is booming right now and it's pretty well removed from all of the subprime BS that's going on, making it one of the safer areas to invest in right now. And of course back-to-school is coming up soon here. All of that coupled with the 2 days of iPhone sales that'll be on the earnings report...how do we feel about AAPL for the short and long term?

macintologist · Jul 23, 2007, 11:41 PM

For an alternative to CDs try high yielding online savings accounts like HSBC Direct. They are savings accounts but at 5% APY and more. Much more flexible than CDs

Lateralus · Jul 23, 2007, 11:59 PM

I've taken 4/7 of my AAPL shares off the table over the past few months, including a chunk today during its session high.

I have no doubt that Apple will continue to rise, but I think we're in a new era for the stock and past performance cannot be used to predict future returns.

AAPL now has a market cap well over 100bn. There are very few other tech companies that have one higher. And in my opinion, they have more support at those levels and more assets that justify those levels.

I have no doubt that AAPL will reach a 200bn market cap... eventually. But given the new stature that the stock has achieved, I sincerely believe the days of AAPL being a wealth making stock are over. Now begins the period of slow, steady returns. Which isn't at all a bad thing, but I've still got a lot of growth in mind for my portfolio and I think I can do better than AAPL elsewhere.

sdilley14 · Jul 24, 2007, 01:31 AM

Please share some of your ideas and insights. I've been looking for someone to talk to about these sort of things. PM me if you could please, I have a bunch of questions and things I'd like an educated opinion on from someone who's actually IN the market and not speculating from the outside with no money invested.

Lateralus · Jul 24, 2007, 01:56 AM

Well, I wouldn't put a whole lot into my opinion. I'm still relatively new to trading but I've been watching the market for a while.

One of the things that has me a little worried about AAPL at the moment is the volatility of it. Most stocks over 100bn in market cap have achieved a confidence from investors and with that confidence comes a certain level of stability. AAPL still moves many points in sessions, often times unpredictably. And it still sells off steeply on any negative rumors.

That type of behavior has me thinking it's caught in the middle between being a renegade stock and becoming a large cap mainstay. It almost seems as if the volatility hints at there still being a view that AAPL is overvalued rather heavily.

And I can't say I disagree. At the moment, half of AAPL's market cap has come since the iPhone was announced. That's a lot of speculation on how big of a success it'll become. If AAPL misses sales goals, theirs or the street's by even a little... watch out.

But assume the iPhone fulfills its potential and continues to push AAPL upward. I think once we see AAPL's market cap approach 200bn, the appeal of the stock will start to shift from home gamers looking to grow their net worth to fund managers looking for a solid, well run and steadily growing tech giant.

And once that happens, I think, you'll start to see AAPL behave like the other guerillas of tech like IBM, MSFT... etc. Meaning you'll see volatility and large increases in stock price give way to relative stability and slow steady growth of market cap.

EricTheRed · 04:29 AM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

Well I bought 107 shares of Apple at $119. I'd say it's done pretty well so far. Analysts moved projected peak from $140 to $160 a while back. It's sitting at about $144 right now with earnings report coming out on Wednesday. How is everyone feeling about it right now? I'm confident it'll stay at atleast $145, but I'm wondering if it'll keep moving upwards towards (or past $160) or hover for a while now. The tech sector is booming right now and it's pretty well removed from all of the subprime BS that's going on, making it one of the safer areas to invest in right now. And of course back-to-school is coming up soon here. All of that coupled with the 2 days of iPhone sales that'll be on the earnings report...how do we feel about AAPL for the short and long term?

The extra $200 a phone Apple is getting from AT&T is not factored into AAPL's stock price. If Apple sold a mere 300,000 phones in two days and ATT has already paid Apple for those phones then Apple will have an additional $0.06 a share in earnings which isn't a big deal until except stock prices are set on expected future earnings and $200.00 extra per phone is a whopper since it reflects nearly 3/4ths of the earnings each phone was earning on it own. The German market is up 1.63% right now with five and a half hours to go before our market kicks a field goal.

FWIW, Munster upped his estimate to $205.00 a share. We're all being presented with a moving target as Apple has jumped two spots this year into the third largest PC maker (each % Apple gains increases profits by one billion dollars), iTunes is selling (no big deal but Apple is estimated to be making over a million a week from it now), iPods sales are expected to be down but nobody knows by how much. What everybody is agreed on is that Apple will meet and exceed its guidance.

sdilley14 · Jul 24, 2007, 05:00 PM

Today sure wasn't too fun in the market! On one hand, it really sucks losing so much value in one day and it really shows how bad it can be to value the stock on so much iPhone speculation, and how fragile it can be when one bit of bad news on that speculation surfaces. However, I like to think of it as a great opportunity to buy a good stock at a discounted value. I'm really really curious to see what the earnings report is going to show tomorrow and how the market will react to it. I'm hoping the report will show sales on a ton of iPhone units that weren't activated, hopefully fulfilling those analysts' projections a bit more. And also hoping iPhone units won't completely overshadow Mac and iPod sales. Either way I don't see the stock dipping down more than a couple more points at most then making it's slow steady climb back up.

Opinions?

bradoesch · Jul 24, 2007, 09:03 PM

Today was a good day to shake out the weak players before earnings.

Chuckit · Jul 24, 2007, 09:06 PM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

Today sure wasn't too fun in the market!

Don't worry, good money it will get a lot better tomorrow.

Powerbook · Jul 25, 2007, 05:19 PM

Originally Posted by Peter

Hint: Shell. Merger coming.

Huh? Why should they?

PB.

Powerbook · Jul 25, 2007, 05:33 PM

I'm doing three different sort of stock investments now:

1) investing long-term money in corporate equity companies: Blackstone Group, Carlyle Group and KKR (as soon as they IPO)
2) mid-term money in solid companies I've owned a couple of years and going to cash out, at the moment: Apple, BMW, Intel, EADS
3) short term play-money, partly in penny stocks or crashed stocks: I had Baan (failure), looking now at Telik, AMD, Transmeta...

Regards
PB.

(We should make a financial forum or a sticky for that very topic.

)

EricTheRed · Jul 25, 2007, 06:21 PM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

Today sure wasn't too fun in the market! On one hand, it really sucks losing so much value in one day and it really shows how bad it can be to value the stock on so much iPhone speculation, and how fragile it can be when one bit of bad news on that speculation surfaces. However, I like to think of it as a great opportunity to buy a good stock at a discounted value. I'm really really curious to see what the earnings report is going to show tomorrow and how the market will react to it. I'm hoping the report will show sales on a ton of iPhone units that weren't activated, hopefully fulfilling those analysts' projections a bit more. And also hoping iPhone units won't completely overshadow Mac and iPod sales. Either way I don't see the stock dipping down more than a couple more points at most then making it's slow steady climb back up.

Opinions?

Opinions? Sure? AAPL is trading over $149 a share in after hours.

Lateralus · Jul 25, 2007, 10:23 PM

Ahh...

I feel so good right now.

The 4/7 of my shares that I had sold off between $132 and $144, I decided to buy back yesterday at around $135.

Powerbook · Jul 26, 2007, 05:03 AM

So, I cashed out AAPL... was too good with +9% on the trade opening... sold at 108 € and put everything into the German company Balda, that's the supplier of iPhone screens. They got played with yesterday, with a minus of nearly 11%.

PB.

Chuckit · Jul 26, 2007, 10:13 AM

What's weird is that, despite Apple's strong growth and almost invariable success, I feel like people are still underestimating the stock and treating it as though it were overvalued and they wanted to cash in before it crashed.

Powerbook · Jul 30, 2007, 07:28 AM

Originally Posted by Chuckit

What's weird is that, despite Apple's strong growth and almost invariable success, I feel like people are still underestimating the stock and treating it as though it were overvalued and they wanted to cash in before it crashed.

That's not weird, Apple's stock price to earnings ratio is above 40! A healthy ratio is around 20, so it's always possible that the stock will be corrected unless Apple announces very strong earnings.

PB.

Chuckit · Jul 30, 2007, 09:52 AM

Apple always does announce strong earnings, particularly for the markets it's in. That's the reason people buy it so much. It seems more likely that Apple's earnings will catch up to its price than the opposite.

bradoesch · Jul 31, 2007, 12:59 AM

Originally Posted by Powerbook

That's not weird, Apple's stock price to earnings ratio is above 40! A healthy ratio is around 20, so it's always possible that the stock will be corrected unless Apple announces very strong earnings.

PB.

A p/e of 20 for this amount of EPS growth? Does 70% not do it for you?

sdilley14 · Aug 3, 2007, 12:47 AM

I've got a few questions. First of all, I'm just curious as to what online trading companies everyone here goes through. I've been doing my trading through optionsxpress.com

Second, I'm wondering if someone could help me out. Is there any way I could set up my account tonight to buy "X" shares of AAPL on the opening bell? I dumped it all a few days ago before it took that 9 point hit now I think it's a good time to get back in at a good discount. I think a lot of the volatility may be gone after the iPhone rumors were disspelled and all the analysts reaffirmed their beliefs that AAPL will go to 160+. A lot of investors took their profits on Tuesday and that was another reason for such a dip on the price. And I'm guessing the new iMacs coming out next Tuesday may give the stock a little bump. Reguardless, I'm looking to get back in ASAP. I just can't figure out how to set this thing to trigger a BUY right at the opening bell. Any suggestions?

Chooglin' · Aug 3, 2007, 02:09 AM

Anyone who has taken a good look at stocks realizes that the "stock market" is actually a giant gambling hall. The truth is that most people without millions to play the game to their advantage lose most of their money. Take your hard earned money and put it into something that isn't worthless paper. If anyone on Wall Street or in any stock brokerage actaully knew how to make money without insider information or just plain luck, do you really think they would be still working for someone else as a stock trader?

sdilley14 · Aug 3, 2007, 02:39 AM

There are plenty of independent investors that have taken their own money and become wealthy, or atleast made their money grow more than a 5%APY bond or savings account. I think investing is a very viable means of making money if you do a lot of research on what you're thinking of investing in, gather several opinions, keep an eye on the news and markets, sectors, etc., don't get too greedy, hedge your risks by investing an amount you could lose without going completely broke, diversifying, setting triggers to sell at or before a certain % loss/gain, and realizing it's not going to be an overnight thing. In no way did I consider buying Apple, a company I follow and have done much research on, a risk after learning of the iPhone release and following all of the major analysts recommendations on it. Granted, I realize you can't just follow analysts, but the iPhone news around $80/share...cmon, how could you not know it wasn't going to go to atleast $100-$120. I don't consider that much of a gamble...it was all but certain it was going to go to $120 at the very least ($140 by the analysts at that time). All of that coupled with strong iPod and iTunes sales and Mac sales...it was a slam dunk IMO. Then again I'm no expert and I'm sure someone here could refute every point I've made.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that yes, there is and always will be a certain amount of risk when investing, but I think that risk can be hedged greatly by following the fundamentals, keeping emotion out of it as much as possible, and keeping track of your investments and making decisions based on the moves the company is making.

I'm still very new to the market, so please by all means, rip my post apart. I'm very open minded and want to learn all that I can about the market. I watch CNBC off and on all day and I constantly look up tickers on Google and check out the headlines of the companies, read what people are saying and thinking about the stocks, etc. I know this makes me nothing more than a novice, so please, educate me!

Buckaroo · Aug 3, 2007, 03:26 AM

For right now, hold on to it. Buy a CD. Apple might be at a peak. I wish I would have bought it 2 years ago when it was at $30 before the split.

bradoesch · Aug 3, 2007, 09:52 PM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

I've got a few questions. First of all, I'm just curious as to what online trading companies everyone here goes through. I've been doing my trading through optionsxpress.com

Second, I'm wondering if someone could help me out. Is there any way I could set up my account tonight to buy "X" shares of AAPL on the opening bell? I dumped it all a few days ago before it took that 9 point hit now I think it's a good time to get back in at a good discount. I think a lot of the volatility may be gone after the iPhone rumors were disspelled and all the analysts reaffirmed their beliefs that AAPL will go to 160+. A lot of investors took their profits on Tuesday and that was another reason for such a dip on the price. And I'm guessing the new iMacs coming out next Tuesday may give the stock a little bump. Reguardless, I'm looking to get back in ASAP. I just can't figure out how to set this thing to trigger a BUY right at the opening bell. Any suggestions?

I'm not sure how your broker works, but you should be able to easily setup a buy order that's good for August 6. Do you have options for creating GTC (good till canceled) orders? That would work too. I will suggest using a limit order because who knows what price a market order would get filled at Monday morning.

Lateralus · Aug 3, 2007, 11:55 PM

Well... This market officially sucks.

I've been in it since April and over the past two weeks I have had more than 90% of my total gains wiped out. Were it not for AAPL, I would be in the red.

MrForgetable · Aug 4, 2007, 01:07 AM

Originally Posted by Lateralus

Well... This market officially sucks.

I've been in it since April and over the past two weeks I have had more than 90% of my total gains wiped out. Were it not for AAPL, I would be in the red.

i know this is not real, but i've been playing the fantasy stock market application on facebook and have seen the same thing. you start with 10 million dollars and i picked a decent mixture of medical, cyclical, technological, utilities, and financial stocks. if it weren't for apple, fortune, and kimco realty, i probably would have lost a million dollars in a week. all the stocks took a big hit this week though except for kimco and fortune.

Cold Warrior · Aug 4, 2007, 01:26 AM

No joke. My mutual funds are getting hammered too. However, I have some money to invest right now, so I'm treating this as a buying opportunity. Each day that the market closes down a lot, I put in another couple hundred dollars.

sdilley14 · Aug 4, 2007, 08:36 AM

This was a very tough weak in the market. Very volatile. The obvious issues with the housing and financials sector were in full force really driving the market down all week and AAPL was extremely volatile all week due to the mass sell-offs and people taking their profits mid week, followed by unsubstantiated iPhone rumors driving the stock down, followed by a decent recovery, followed by another downward spiral on Friday for no apparent reason. I'm just hoping the Apple event on Tuesday will lift the stock back up a bit. I'm very afraid to see what may happen this Monday though. I realize the market is in the process of making a correction right now after hitting that 14000 mark a couple weeks ago, but cmon...Apple earnings were stellar, new product line refreshes are right around the corner in time for the back to school season, practical 2 day iPhone sales projections were met, the stock is projected to go anywhere from $160-$200 by several analysts...let's get this S.O.B. goin!