[subego]

-2° actual temp on tap for tomorrow.

[Thorzdad]

Gonna hit 0 here. -11 wind chill.

[Laminar]

This was last week. Similar today.

[subego]

It actually got to the forecasted -1 overnight, but it went back up to the teens once the sun came out. It’s blazing bright today.

[andi*pandi]

Very chilly today. Everyone is getting excited for Big Snow this weekend:
https://www.universalhub.com/french-toast

4 Slices / High: Heavy snow predicted. Harvey Leonard breaks into huge grin, can't keep his hands off the weather map. Proceed at speed limit before snow starts to nearest supermarket to pick up two gallons of milk, a couple dozen eggs and two loaves of bread - per person in household.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by subego 

It actually got to the forecasted -1 overnight, but it went back up to the teens once the sun came out. It’s blazing bright today.

Shit, I don't miss those IL winters. Stay warm.

-t

[subego]

TY!

Blizzard today. Very messy. Almost got stuck once.

Thanks again to Shortcut for saying I’d be an idiot not to have winter tires!

[MacNNFamous]

No snow. In like a FUCKING MONTH. Trails still haven't opened. Looks like 40s in 3 weeks.

What a shit season.

Meanwhile, illinois gets pounded and they don't even have a trail network. Rad.

[subego]

It’s supposed to snow in Dallas tonight.

[Thorzdad]

Originally Posted by subego 

It’s supposed to snow in Dallas tonight.

Not to worry. The governor says they’ve fixed all the power grid problems.

[ShortcutToMoncton]

Originally Posted by subego 

TY!

Blizzard today. Very messy. Almost got stuck once.

Thanks again to Shortcut for saying I’d be an idiot not to have winter tires!

Haha put brand new Michelin X-ice snows on my Ridgeline this year but had to wait until early Jan, so got to feel what a difference it is. Really nice.

[MacNNFamous]

I shouldn't have even put on snow tires this year. What a joke.

[andi*pandi]

We are due for sleet and freezing rain tomorrow.

[subego]

Forecast for Wednesday: 50°
Forecast for Thursday: 6°

[MacNNFamous]

Trails never even opened here. 45 on Wed. Idk why the fuck I even build snowmobiles.

[andi*pandi]

Go North, young man. Canada is not that far away!

Going skiing next week. Maine has plenty of snow.

[Thorzdad]

Originally Posted by subego 

Forecast for Wednesday: 50°
Forecast for Thursday: 6°

Down here in Indy, we’re the same for Wednesday. Thursday, we’ll hit a high of 52 (and rain) around 4am. After that, the bottom falls out and we hit a low of 25 (and snow) around midnight. And we have a high wind warning.

[subego]

It’s been revised to 49° high on Wednesday and 12° low on Thursday, but starting Sunday we’ll allegedly get four days in a row with above freezing highs.

My optimistic interpretation is the really awful part is over.

[ShortcutToMoncton]

I hope not! Still waiting for my new snowboard! Damn you supply lines!

[ghporter]

Today: high of 80, low tonight of 59. Thursday: 78/34, Friday 69/36. Mother Nature seems kind of psychotic here lately…

This wreaks havoc on my workout routine. Walk outdoors in shorts? In pants and a jacket? Stay the bleep inside and use the exercise bike? Who knows until just before I decide to head out.

And my plants are confused too. One of my avocados bloomed last month…not too out of the ordinary for this variety, but it went WILD with its blooms. Then we had a couple of pretty harsh freezes, so who knows what will happen with those blossoms. The other avocado tree is younger, and it didn’t bloom, but it also seems to have had more problems with the freezes.

No, these freezes weren’t anything like the severe stuff we had last year. Thankfully, since Texas’ electric grid hasn’t been even sort of fixed since then.

[ShortcutToMoncton]

Alright, now you’re just outright trolling….

[subego]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

Walk outdoors in shorts? In pants and a jacket?

The answer is shorts and two jackets.

[Thorzdad]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

No, these freezes weren’t anything like the severe stuff we had last year. Thankfully, since Texas’ electric grid hasn’t been even sort of fixed since then.

Biggest Texas Bitcoin Miner Shuts Down Ahead of Cold Blast

One way Ercot can try to avert blackouts in a storm is by using its so-called demand response programs, where industrial users like Bitcoin miners voluntarily agree to shut down to conserve power. Those users reduce power use if Ercot asks them to. The programs don’t come free: The grid operator pays miners when they are asked to shut down or curtail power use.

Apparently, Texas is becoming a magnet for miners.

[subego]

Correlation does not equal causation, but in America there is a strong correlation with adequate power generation capacity and reliance on coal.

[ghporter]

It ain’t about how the electricity is generated. In Texas it’s about regulation. Way back in 1935, to avoid Federal regulation, Texas electricity producers banded together and agreed to not send any electricity outside the state.

Since then, Texas has been the only state with its own, separate, power grid. But lacking Federal regulations that required things like redundancy, weatherization of plants, and other steps that prevent outages - but “cost too much money” - our grid has deteriorated to a near third-world state in some areas.

Worse, ERCOT, the grid manager, has in place bureaucratic BS that made last year’s outages much worse. Gas producers should be exempt from being blacked out - so they can continue to produce and move gas to power plants. But “you gotta submit the exemption forms.” So a bunch of gas sources just plain shut down because their power was cut off.

So we have poorly maintained plants, crappy distribution grids, fragile fuel sources, and of course people who died because fixing the above would cut into “shareholder value.”

If there’s a better public example of bald-faced greed-driven malfeasance in any state activity, I don’t know of it.

[subego]

Even if we fixed all that, demand would be 90% of capacity during another Uri. That’s a dangerously low safety margin. Coal didn’t perform well during Uri so maybe that’s not the answer, but Texas already uses natural gas to create 80% of its power in winter, and has to share supply with gas heating, which gets priority. Added capacity along with diversification would appear to be in order.


Edit: of course, once we factor in the problems you mention, that margin is out the window. Just with typical ERCOT incompetence and crummy infrastructure, we’re up to 100% of capacity. Then, if wind turbines freeze up because they’re not winterized, we’re at 112%. This is still assuming all the thermal generation infrastructure is winterized, which it isn’t, and there’s no demand spike from the heating sector, which there will be. Factor in both of those and it gets up to 159%.

Edit 2: source. ERCOT is page 36.
https://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reli...C_WRA_2021.pdf

[ghporter]

It’s all about lining suit pockets with cash, and to hell with whatever happens to Texans when thing go south.

In general, the US has a crumbling infrastructure. We built roads and bridges and power plants and dams, but once the were built, the public basically ignored any maintenance beyond fixing the pot holes on their particular paths to the mall.

In Texas, it’s worse. Does “cynical” fall under “corruption”? Or is it an extra layer of corruption? Either way, the suits in charge (political and business) don’t even seem to work hard at hiding how badly they “take care of” the public. They just “other” the hell out of the poor and non-white population, and the lily white UMCs buy their line wholesale - and vote them back in over and over. Until one of those incredibly bizarre freeway loops in Dallas collapses on a hospital full of pediatric cancer patients (which is not hyperbole - there are a couple such loops around a couple big pediatric hospitals in Dallas), the SUV moms and Bubba dads will give Greg Abbot a thumbs up to screw everybody over.

[subego]

Like I said, even if Texas was corruption-free and had perfect infrastructure the safety margin in an Uri-like scenario would be 10%. That’s not enough.


Edit: I mean, it doesn’t seem like enough to me.

[Thorzdad]

This week in Indy...
Tuesday: high of 60 and thunderstorms
Thursday: high of 29 and snow

[subego]

Somewhat similar here. Going to hover around 40° until Tuesday night, then 19° by noon on Wednesday.

Afterwards, we’re forecasted for 7 days of below freezing before it breaks again. Now, that’s got to be the last big lunge, or close to it. March sucks, but it’s generally above freezing.

[ghporter]

Originally Posted by subego 

Like I said, even if Texas was corruption-free and had perfect infrastructure the safety margin in an Uri-like scenario would be 10%. That’s not enough.


Edit: I mean, it doesn’t seem like enough to me.

I completely agree. We’re “the energy state,” so why is our energy grid so crappy?

[subego]

Not counting all the corruption and like reasons, a few things jump out at me.

Firstly, I’m all for solar and wind. Texas deserves credit for taking advantage of them, and should take more advantage. The problem is both of these require the weather to cooperate. For all their advantages, the dependence on the weather relegates them to a supplemental role. A dependable grid needs to be able to generate enough capacity without them. Texas’ grid can’t.

Secondly, Texas leans really hard into natural gas. This makes sense because it’s locally available in abundance. From a dependability standpoint, it’s two tons of eggs in a one pound basket.

Also, more of an aside, it’s not like having better interconnects with neighboring regions would be a bad thing, but they’re less help than they might appear when the SHTF, because the S is hitting their F too. They risk collapsing their own grid if they share too much.

[ghporter]

And today it was about 63F when we got up. So we took a nice little hike on one of the greenway trails the city has built. There are over 82 miles of these trails; paved, safe, and typically very accessible. They are built along the various lesser waterways in the city (Leon Creek, Culebra Creek, Salado Creek, the Medina River, and a few more small rivers and creeks), and are built to help prevent erosion and control flooding, as well as to provide access to walkers, runners, and bicyclists.

It’s supposed to get up to 85F today. But by Wednesday it’ll be rainy with a high of 61F…. Not that South Texas is known for gentle, consistent weather with gradual changes between seasons, but this is really kinda whack for here.

[subego]

65° now, snow tomorrow night.

[Thorzdad]

76 now. Thunderstorms tomorrow night. Amazing the difference a couple hundred miles makes.

[ghporter]

It’s 81 right now (almost 6PM here) with an expected low of 65. Tomorrow should be similar, and then it gets cold again…for a couple of days. Then it yo-yos through the next week. Not a typical pattern for here at all.

[Thorzdad]

Tornado sirens at 3:00am last night. And I was sleeping so well, for once.

[Laminar]

Seven deaths from tornados yesterday.

My phone started blaring right as the sirens went off. We went to the basement and played down there for an hour or so. Power flickered but never went out.

Looks like back to freezing temps and snow next week?

[Thorzdad]

I heard Iowa got the worst of it last night. Condolences.

Our 4-year-old granddaughter was staying the night with us. She was really good about having to get out of bed and take shelter. We had peanut butter and crackers while we holed-up.

We set record highs yesterday, which set the stage for the storm front last night. The forecast for my part of Indiana is potentially more of the same tonight.

[Laminar]

And I woke up to 4" of snow. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[andi*pandi]

All our snow melted in a 60º day yesterday.

[ghporter]

Day before yesterday it was about 81. Yesterday it got into the 60s. Today’s expected high is 59, and tonight’s low is supposed to be 36. Yep, winter came back.

The next several days’ temperatures go up and down around the same amount. Then comes Monday, where the expected high is 81. Note that this is not “summer” weather here, but more a spring-ish temperature. But still, even for March, this isn’t right.

[Thorzdad]

Holy shit the wind last night was insane!

[Laminar]

Woke up to snow on the ground. This is like...third winter?

[subego]

80° now, back into the 40s on Monday. Total bait. Not falling for it.

[ghporter]

We’ve had (predominantly) southerly winds for several days. These usually bring enough moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to cause noticeable precipitation; if these winds stay out of the south, we should have rain. But not lately. Sprinkles, mists, and so on, but not really rain.

Temperatures have also been weird…lows in the upper 60s one day, then in the upper 70s the next, and highs in the “whatever” range.

I’m OK with warm, cool, even hot, but decide! And it would really help if there was a few hours of steady - even relatively light - rain to wash the oak/willow/etc. pollen out of the air for a while. I’ll deal with the airborne mold that these rains bring out.

And while San Antonio isn’t known for “moderate, consistent, and pleasant” weather, we do have historical patterns. That have been absent for quite a while. Nobody knows how to plan for “the end of the week,” let alone the next week. Yard work? Walk in the park? Mow the lawn? Who freakin’ knows…

[subego]

The big change I’ve noticed in the overall pattern across my life in Chicago is May used to be nice. Now it doesn’t get nice until June.

April has consistently been the month of crazy, 40° swings. A/K/A arthritis and gout month.

April and May are also wet. Dry is July and August.

[Thorzdad]

At this moment, it is 90° with a heat index of 101°. Gonna be like this most of the week.

[subego]

We had a similar day today, and one forecast for yesterday, but yesterday suddenly decided 65° and tornado.

[Laminar]

"Unprecedented" weather patterns? Sounds like the new normal to me.

https://apnews.com/article/floods-tr...5d8b582381a0c6