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You are here: MacNN Forums > News > Mac News > Editorial: is there a market for a new four-inch iPhone?

Editorial: is there a market for a new four-inch iPhone?
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Jan 29, 2016, 03:41 PM
 
As you may have seen from our Rumor Roundups, there has been a lot of talk lately about an alleged new iPhone model that is thought might launch this spring. As is the case with rumors not based on hard evidence, the supposed specs of the device change nearly hourly, and resemble more closely someone's wish list than a practical or sensible device at times. Two things have stayed constant in the various versions of the rumor, however: a four-inch display, and that it is based on the idea of a revamp of the iPhone 5s.

Why would Apple take a step back in this manner to a smaller device? Various reasons have been given, but for a device that is claimed to be in production right now for an alleged launch in March, it's suspicious and unusual that no parts or shell leaks, or prototypes of this hybrid device (borrowing, as the report claim, elements from the iPhone 5s and the iPhone 6 or 6s) have surfaced. One easily-debunked fake video and one photo that seems to be Photoshopped isn't going to cut it.

Concept renderings of the two main style ideas
Concept renderings of the two main style ideas


That's not to say there isn't some potential motivation for a new iPhone model that emerges in the spring. Such a move would help fight the doldrums that inevitably set in starting in the second half of the yearly production cycle, for example, giving the revenues of Apple's top product a nice boost. Furthermore, if you're going to introduce a new iPhone this far ahead of Christmas, it would probably make sense that said iPhone wouldn't be a scene-stealer from the flagship devices -- and a four-inch iPhone that doesn't have all the features of the big boys fits that bill nicely.

Developing markets and smaller displays

Recent polling by MacNN of Apple Store customers found that only about one in 10 iPhone users would be interested in the "return" of a smaller iPhone model, down from the larger 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch versions that are the standard now. Apple does still sell an iPhone with a four-inch display -- it still makes and sells as new the iPhone 5s, which is in its "free with contract" tier these days, having originally debuted in late 2013. If the findings of our survey of 1,000 shoppers holds up as generally true for the market as a whole, there is very little motivation for Apple to expend the effort to retool a new, smaller device.



That's not to say there aren't people who genuinely want a four-inch iPhone or to dismiss their preference, but to point out that 90 percent of the people we polled indicated they'd like the current sizes or larger, not smaller. Further, we've found anecdotally that many of the people who say they prefer the four-inch size will change their minds after actually using the 4.7-inch iPhone 6 or 6s for a short period -- a common resistance to change that prefers the familiar to the new.

On the other hand, perhaps all this talk of a four-inch iPhone isn't actually aimed at the US or North American/European mainstay markets at all, but is actually a device intended to be aimed at developing markets. Despite some stiffening economic volatility and currency-exchange headwinds, Apple CEO Tim Cook seems very enthused about the longer-term potential of markets such as Russia, Brazil, Thailand, India, and of course China -- the latter of which remains Apple's fastest-growing market, and the company has invested significantly in these markets in hopes of future rewards.

A new device that could boost sales in such regions would of course be welcome, but would be contingent on Apple finding a way to bring the various possible improvements that would be key to such a device -- Apple Pay compatibility, improved speed and power over the iPhone 5s, and other updated specs -- for considerably less cost than it has managed to accomplish previously while maintaining the quality that the company depends on to retain customers.

iPhone
iPhone '6c' concept


The problem with this is obvious: Apple has said repeatedly that it doesn't know how to do that. The cheapest iPhone Apple sells is the iPhone 5s, which since it has long since paid for its own development costs, is as cheap as Apple feels it can sell for -- $450 to buy outright. That's a notable discount from a brand new base iPhone 6s, which costs $650, but only $100 less than the base iPhone 6 -- and these prices are all US-based. In most countries, any iPhone model will cost quite a bit more in equivalent local currency.

Switch from the US to the Canadian store, for example, and that $450 iPhone 5s jumps to $600 -- and don't even look at how much that iPhone costs in Brazil or Russia, where the currency has been devalued by 40 percent and 50 percent over the last year, respectively -- and there are also the usual import taxes attached to that cost that are unavoidable. For a new iPhone to really capture the developing markets, Apple would have to find a way to sell one for much less than that, yet make the quality and features better than the existing iPhone 5s.

A solution in search of a problem

To be clear, we think it would be cool for Apple to offer a revamped iPhone 5s with added capabilities (like Apple Pay, which isn't that important now but will increase in usefulness over time, and Voice Over LTE) and modern specifications, particularly if it can do so at a budget price. We're not dismissing the "iPhone 6c/5se" or whatever they are going to call it outright -- we're just trying to figure out how this will work without either undermining the company's own larger iPhones, or disappointing Wall Street with its higher-than-expected pricetag.

We like the idea of Apple re-using and updating its older technology and/or designs in novel ways, but in particular the camp that believes this new device will mark the return of the iPhone 5c in the iPhone 6's styling (complete with the metal-reinforced plastic back, some reports claim) are probably barking up the wrong cell tower disguised as a tree. Despite the fact that the iPhone 5c was actually extremely successful (consistently the third or fourth best-selling individual model in the world during its run), it was perceived as a (relative) failure at the very same idea the pundits are pushing now -- a repackaging of older technology in a (slightly) cheaper new iPhone form factor.

Given that Apple still sells the iPhone 5s, it would make more sense for the company to simply update the internals of the device and continue to sell it (as the "iPhone 5se" perhaps, though they might be just as likely to keep the original name and just change the model number). We agree strongly that Apple should no longer be selling any iPhone models that don't support Apple Pay, and while the iPhone 5s can run iOS 9.2 pretty well, a little more RAM or a faster processor (or both) would probably make that experience noticeably better.



Because of the current economic and currency troubles in the very markets Apple is interested in developing, a device aimed at those markets will have a difficult time finding its footing in the current climate, though to be fair Apple has always played the long game with little regard for the present moment's situation. The problem with the entire proposal of a new device coming out now, as attractive as the concept may be to some of us, is a fundamental obstacle Apple is unlikely to have overcome: it will only do well if it is markedly less expensive than it's two-year-old iPhone 5s, and this seems unlikely.

Still, the problems we've outlined -- of disrupting the yearly cycle of the flagship iPhone and finding a way to better penetrate developing markets -- are real, and Apple needs to do something about it. There's another wrinkle, however, that could prove to be an even more important factor in making any new iPhone device a success, and that's the enormous pool of worldwide Android users. This, more than the tiny minority of four-inch iPhone lovers or Wall Street analyst pipe dreamers, will get Apple big sales in short order -- just when it needs them.

Cook has said that the most recent quarter saw the largest number of Android switchers "by far" Apple has yet seen, so it is apparently doing a lot right already: if the company can find a way to throw some gasoline on that fire, particularly if it can come up with something that will convince more than just "premium" Android device users to switch, it can tap into a "new" market that is an order of magnitude larger than the market it currently serves.

Computer-generated
Computer-generated 'iPhone 7' concept


Just as the company has incorporated styles and features designed to appeal to the Chinese and developing markets in its recent designs (such as the gold color option), Apple can and should be thinking about ways to further lure mid-range Android smartphone users over to the iPhone, since that approach would have both short-term benefits (as a lot of Android owners worldwide have bought their phones outright, and so aren't bound to them, and have invested very little into the app ecosystem), and longer-term benefits (Apple's iOS platform is much "stickier" and once users are in it, they don't tend to leave -- the switch rate away from iOS is far, far lower than the rate coming to it).

All products have a life cycle, and the iPhone will -- eventually, and not for quite a few years yet -- fall prey to the same decline we saw with the iPod, though the functionality of the device will live on in future technological developments (our bet is that a future Apple Watch will be able to independently handle most of the core functions people most commonly use an iPhone for now, with other devices taking on the rest). We think Apple's reputation for thinking ahead is well-earned, and that it already has some idea of what will succeed the iPhone as the company's best-selling product in, say, 10 years time. How that will shake out exactly, we naturally have very little idea -- but we know that the key to Apple's future success is bringing more people into the Apple tent.

Any new device from the company should have that -- rather than the price points or feature lists that are the favorite aspects of the short-sighted punditry class -- as its primary goal above all else. In a world where the US has become a still-important but less-primary growth market, this means developing products that cater to the world outside California and North America. It will be very interesting to find out how that philosophy manifests itself going forward from such a quintessentially American company as Apple.

-- Charles Martin
( Last edited by NewsPoster; Jan 29, 2016 at 04:03 PM. )
     
dmwalsh568
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Jan 29, 2016, 04:01 PM
 
Personally I hate the constant size increases of the phones. I want a phone that fits in my shirt pocket without sticking up two inches! The 5S is just the right size to fit in most men's shirt pockets with no Kilroy was here peek-a-boo stuff going on. That's why I haven't upgraded to the current iPhone even though I'm a few versions behind now.
Yes, I know I'm an edge case, but golly it would be nice if Apple thought of this stuff rather than forcing everyone to carry a purse to store the phone.
     
Charles Martin
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Jan 29, 2016, 04:21 PM
 
I see what you mean about the shirt pocket, but I'd guess most people keep their iPhones in their pants pocket -- and at least for most men, the iPhone 6s (the screen of which is only .7 inch larger) fits there just fine.

As for those who prefer the four-inch form factor, Apple hasn't actually said anything on this topic of course, but the iPhone 5s remains available now, and perhaps this new four-inch device -- if it appears -- will carry on being available for at least another cycle or two, so I think the future is probably bright for those who want a four-inch iPhone.
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April Fool
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Jan 29, 2016, 05:06 PM
 
"Recent polling by MacNN of Apple Store customers found that only about one in 10 iPhone users would be interested in the "return" of a smaller iPhone model, down from the larger 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch versions that are the standard now."

Go run that same in Jakarta, Mumbai or New Delhi and see just how different your results would be.
     
luxetlibertas
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Jan 29, 2016, 05:19 PM
 
Fact: At the moment, some 60% of iPhone users hold on to their 4" or even 3.5" devices.
It would be reckless of Apple to risk leaving them stranded if they actually prefer a smaller iPhone. As Apple really cannot offer the 5S for another year, it has to bring it up to date.

Even if it turns out to be only 10% who prefer it, it's still worth while. Should Apple really try to make the best 4" device it can, with a new design including more useful screen space (smaller bezels), it even could represent the best of both worlds. As a lower volume device, a 2-year update cycle would be reasonable.
     
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Jan 29, 2016, 05:25 PM
 
I wouldn't put much stock in surveys. People tend to say what makes them look good. Opting for a smaller phone sounds like opting for a cheaper one. I've got an iPhone 5 now and see little reason to upgrade, but I'd also not care that much whether I went with a 4-inch or 4.7-inch model. Both seem to fall short of what I'd like, which is a phone that meant I didn't need a tablet. Neither is large enough for that. On the other hand, the plus-sized are clearly too large for every day carry. My hunch is that those with smaller hands (i.e. many women) may find 4.7 inches too large. It's just right for my guy hands. What Apple really needs, as others have suggested, is a model cheap enough to sell outside the more affluent countries. If Apple turns up its nose about doing that, the Apple will also have to concede those markets to Samsung.
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Charles Martin
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Jan 29, 2016, 06:15 PM
 
April Fool: the reason Apple went to larger devices in the first place was because people OUTSIDE the US were buying larger-screen devices that run Android in huge numbers because they wanted one device that could perform much of the work of a tablet and computer, and Apple's iPhone was too small.

luxetlibertas: that is in no way, shape, or form a fact. You are simply misunderstanding Cook's comment, which was that 60 percent of iPhone users have not upgraded *to the latest model,* which is the iPhone 6s line. EDIT: nope, I'm wrong. I misheard the line in the conference call.

Still, while you are right in saying that 60 percent of the user base is on a smaller iPhone than the 6/6s lines, you're assuming they're all happy with that. I can assure you that many iPhone 5s owners are using hand-me-downs because they have no choice in the matter (parents, spouses) or for economic reasons. Ownership does not necessarily equate to "I would turn down a larger iPhone if one was offered to me." Also, some users of the iPhone 5s (unknown number, but certainly a few million) are still on their two-year contracts, either because they bought at the tail end of the "new" year for the iPhone 5s (much of 2014), or they bought one when the price went down following the introduction of the iPhone 6 in late 2014.
( Last edited by Charles Martin; Jan 29, 2016 at 06:50 PM. Reason: mistake and clarification)
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Jan 29, 2016, 06:20 PM
 
I think it's a good move for Apple to go for smaller size as option. They are great for kids' small hands. I know iPhone is not a baby sitter. But kids carrying iPhones are increasing. Parents can keep tracks where they are when over friend's house or God forbidden if they ever get lost. Kids these days don't make phone calls to each other, they chat via Instagram and other social medias.
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Jan 29, 2016, 06:58 PM
 
I think the survey you did, like most surveys does not reflect the reality of the potential mark, certainly it only represents the US users in the geography those 1000 people were.

I have been waiting for a new 4" iPhone for 2-3 years now, was going to take the plunge with the 6 but that was not forthcoming, so have waited patiently, will pounce as soon as the 6c becomes available.

Think the point about the installed base of 4, 4s, 5, 5c and 5s customers is still massive, major potential business outside the US too, this is not 10% in my view, more like 30-40%... Rgds, M
     
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Jan 29, 2016, 07:23 PM
 
Marauder: I think you too may be making a mistake in your reasoning. There are not a lot of people using iPhone 4 unit still. There is a non-zero number, but its not big -- and we know this for a fact because the iPhone 4 can't run iOS 8 or 9. LIkewise, there are probably not a huge percentage of people on any of the iPhones prior to the 5 family. Most people do not hold onto their iPhones for more than a year after their contracts, so it is entirely reasonable to assume that "four-inch holdouts" as we might call them probably make up maybe 10-15 percent (at best) of the 60 percent not on iPhone 6 or higher. The much larger bulk of them would be people who got an iPhone 5c or 5s on contract in 2014 or later; those contracts may not have ended yet. Looking at the number of 5c and 5s iPhones sold, and remembering that contracts were the dominant way to buy them at the time, that's pretty clearly where the vast majority of potential iPhone buyers who aren't Android switchers are.
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Jan 29, 2016, 07:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Marauder View Post
I think the survey you did, like most surveys does not reflect the reality of the potential mark, certainly it only represents the US users in the geography those 1000 people were.
Yup, and we noted that in the survey.

I have been waiting for a new 4" iPhone for 2-3 years now, was going to take the plunge with the 6 but that was not forthcoming, so have waited patiently, will pounce as soon as the 6c becomes available.

Think the point about the installed base of 4, 4s, 5, 5c and 5s customers is still massive, major potential business outside the US too, this is not 10% in my view, more like 30-40%... Rgds, M
Yes, the 4, 4s, 5, 5c and 5s customers are a massive opportunity, but that doesn't mean that its an opportunity to make a smaller format that will be widely adopted. Charles is right, there are an enormous number of factors with these users. Yes, some are waiting for a smaller phone, but I'm sticking with iPhone upgraders who want a smaller device at or around our numbers, and on the outside, no more than 20 percent of the total are waiting for the smaller form factor.

What you've got here is confirmation bias. You want the smaller phone, ergo, everybody else is wrong. The thing is, you don't know, and we don't either. Apple's got a better idea about their user base that either of us do, but they're not completely certain about it either, or we would have seen the smaller form factor when the 6 launched more than a year ago now. All we've got for sure is what we can ask, in the geographical areas we can hit realistically.

What we know for sure, and we got confirmed from the survey we did, is that MacNN readers aren't "average" Apple users. What we want, isn't necessarily in Apple's best interest, no matter how much we want it to be.
     
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Jan 29, 2016, 11:05 PM
 
Personally, I simply prefer a phone that is small and mostly a phone. If I wanted a phablet I would buy one, but I don't. I like a small phone, that fits in zippered-breast pockets (for security while skiing, for example). I want a phone that isn't in the way when being used with a car-mount. Etc. The current "small" 6 is absolutely the largest total form-factor I would ever go with, but I much prefer the 5s (actually, I like the somewhat shorter 4s the best of all my phones so far because it fit perfectly in a front pant's pocket, whereas even the 5s is occasionally a bit too tall). I'm even one of those wacko's who never used a case to keep the form-factor as small as possible (until the 5s, because the back is soooooooo slick I feared dropping it, and even then I choose the slimmest case available). We all see the trends. I understand that Apple had to build a bigger phone. but building solely to "the market" leads only to stagnation and mediocrity. All too often, to build something great you have to be willing to buck the trends. A smaller 6 will definitely find buyers. Not a huge number I'm sure, but without a smaller size Apple risks losing those customers altogether.
     
Charles Martin
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Jan 30, 2016, 12:18 AM
 
Panjandrum: I would imagine that's the chief motivation for them doing this at all, if they are. Coffeetime made a good (if a bit sad to me) point about a market for the "iPhone 5se" as a kid's phone as well.
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Jan 30, 2016, 01:52 AM
 
re: "Why would Apple take a step back in this manner to a smaller device?"

One could think of it as a step forward, not backward, but I agree you've nailed the general perception. In my dream world, Apple has realized that bigger isn't for everyone (as much of a real demand as it was), and has course-corrected with a model for a possibly smaller (10%-25%+) but important market segment. But, of course, that requires wisdom rather than bean-counter thinking.

If this is an important market-segment (and I'd argue it is), then the % is rather irrelevant, just as the iPad Pro is important, yet a fraction of the total tablet market... or the Mac Pro is crucial, even though it is a itty-bitty-fraction of the computer market.

re: "we're just trying to figure out how this will work without either undermining the company's own larger iPhones, or disappointing Wall Street with its higher-than-expected pricetag"

Well, Wall Street is irrelevant aside from their financial influence (so they need to be played, but not taken seriously). Jobs was a master of this, but I have my doubts about Cook.

As for undermining the larger phones, why do people keep saying this? If larger isn't better, nothing is being undermined. There *is* a difference between flagship and budget. They'll have to decide if they are doing one or the other or both, but it's irrelevant to the discussion over 4" phones.

If they make it a flagship model, then who cares about undermining, as they make roughly the same profit no matter which size the customer buys. If it's a budget model, then it has to have market differentiation... NO MATTER THE SCREEN SIZE!!!

re: "and while the iPhone 5s can run iOS 9.2 pretty well, a little more RAM or a faster processor (or both) would probably make that experience noticeably better."

Bingo! For reasons of user-experience, no matter what ANY device Apple sells is, it needs to be current tech, limited in features if necessary to differentiate. Cheaper old tech just creates a poor user-experience which is DESTRUCTIVE to Apple whole brand!

Apple needs to be about user-experience. Anything that gets in the way of that (no matter how much money it saves, or how much it increases profit) is a bad decision.

re: "though to be fair Apple has always played the long game with little regard for the present moment's situation"

Yes, they used to. (I wouldn't count on that anymore.)

re: "it will only do well if it is markedly less expensive than it's two-year-old iPhone 5s, and this seems unlikely."

Which is why it either needs to be a similarly priced sibling to the 6s and 6s+, or a budget phone stripped of many of it's features. What it can't be, is mushy middle.

re: "Still, the problems we've outlined -- of disrupting the yearly cycle of the flagship iPhone and finding a way to better penetrate developing markets -- are real, and Apple needs to do something about it."

Simple solution? Do both. (ie: add a true 4" flagship model, AND a budget model)

re: getting Android users

I think the best way is just to make the best phones. Most Android users I've met went there due to A) cost, or B) a perception of non-walled-garden or being a geek, etc. It's going to be hard to get those folks. But, having the absolute best product and user-experience, will get the ones that are gettable.

re: "but we know that the key to Apple's future success is bringing more people into the Apple tent."

Nope, that's Wall Street thinking. Apple just has to have the best products, and we'll keep buying them... and as an aside, people will keep coming to the platform. As long as that happens, Apple will make a really nice profit. It's irrelevant if they keep selling more every quarter, or increasing the profit every quarter, etc. unless you're BETTING on futures.
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Sanjiv Sathiah
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Jan 30, 2016, 01:58 AM
 
I'm very interested in seeing an upgraded 4-inch iPhone for my daughter, who has just started catching the train to attend high school. Although Apple has had its greatest success with the iPhone as a premium device targeted at the high-end of the smartphone market, it is vital that they still have something that appeals to potential buyers in the mid-range segment of the market too. These buyers are aspirational, and will one day likely upgrade to a high-end iPhone should they get the chance. Better to have them already in the iPhone fold, than leave them in the clutches of Android.

Many of these potential buyers are parents of teenage children who want to be able to keep in touch with their kids, and/or know where they are using Apple's location services. Further, for this subset of parents who might already own iPhones themselves, or who are upgrading these same children from iPods to iPhones, likely already have a lot of content ready to load on these devices from the outset. It's a familiar platform and one that already fits within their home ecosystem. The other potential market for the device are college and uni students, who too, are aspirational and might well strike out for a more expensive iPhone down the track.

Lastly, there are those iPhone owners who have always felt quite comfortable with the 4-inch model, and were never particularly fussed about a larger device (even though this is what most of the market wants. A more powerful 4-inch model with comparable performance to the high-end models is still a good thing to help ensure that Apple's iPhone line up is as strong as it can be. Not everyone needs or wants the latest and greatest, but they do want the confidence of a familiar and reliable platform, not to mention customer service.

As for whether it calls this would-be model an iPhone 6c or 5se, I think this is actually quite significant. I tend to favor the latter, as it allows Apple to more easily price it at an affordable entry point. Those that want the higher-end iPhone for snob value, won't want a "5" when the "6/6s" models are the latest and greatest, so they won't be tempted to go for the cheaper model, even if it is more than capable of meeting their needs. Those in the mid-range market can still look to the 5se as a new model iPhone and all the initial excitement that that entails.

So for me, an upgraded 4-inch iPhone from Apple is both inevitable, and necessary. Whether it needs to be an all-new design or not is not quite as important, though it would be nice if did look similar to the "6/6s" models and/or have some of its newer functionality.
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Jan 30, 2016, 02:17 AM
 
Originally Posted by April Fool View Post
Go run that same in Jakarta, Mumbai or New Delhi and see just how different your results would be.
It has been addressed already, but I also agree. Any markets where the phone is trying to be THE computing device don't have the luxury of a smaller phone AND some other device, like many of us in N.A. do. If a phone was my only device, I'd also want the biggest possible screen, and I'd just deal with the inconvenience of it.

Originally Posted by luxetlibertas View Post
Fact: At the moment, some 60% of iPhone users hold on to their 4" or even 3.5" devices.
...
Even if it turns out to be only 10% who prefer it, it's still worth while.
I also don't believe it's only 10%... though it's true that everyone on older phones isn't necessarily waiting for an updated 4". If I had to bet today with the knowledge I have, I'd say it would become the 2nd best selling model... i.e.: 4.7" then 4" then 5.5". And, I wouldn't say that means they should drop the 5.5" just because it is only a small percent.

Originally Posted by Marauder View Post
I think the survey you did, like most surveys does not reflect the reality of the potential mark, certainly it only represents the US users in the geography those 1000 people were.
I think the general person on the street has bought into the 'bigger is better' mentality as well, unless they are actually holding each model and seriously considering them. So, I don't think it has much to do with where the survey was taken, but that it might not have been getting a realistic picture of what people would ACTUALLY buy.

All I know is that I see a strong use-case for a smaller phone, and from every outlet I have for getting a read on it, a pretty strong outcry for one. And, even if it is only 5%, it would be well worth making one (but, as I said above, I think the 10% of the MacNN survey is really low).
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Jan 30, 2016, 02:25 AM
 
Originally Posted by Sanjiv Sathiah View Post
So for me, an upgraded 4-inch iPhone from Apple is both inevitable, and necessary. Whether it needs to be an all-new design or not is not quite as important, though it would be nice if did look similar to the "6/6s" models and/or have some of its newer functionality.
I agree with most of what you have said, except that I think having just one phone to try and do all of this is tricky. They'd have an easier time with the marketing aspect if they made both a true 4" sibling to the flagship line and a true budget phone.

The trick with the budget phone, though, would be what features to leave off. As I said above, making it old-tech is a big mistake, so to make it lower cost with out cannibalization, it would have to have less features, which the flagship people would miss.

But, given that I don't think Apple is making great decisions any longer, who knows what they will actually try to do?
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Jan 30, 2016, 11:00 AM
 
One thing that needs to be addressed or thought about is how to make a 4" iPhone with a 16:9 screen aspect ratio.

Apple abandoned the 4:3 and 3:2 aspect ratios with the iPhone 5, and they haven't looked back yet. Would developers be on-board to, once again, go back and revise their apps to work on two different aspect ratios?

In my opinion, they would not. If Apple does release a 4" iPhone, I would put my money on it having a 16:9 screen aspect ratio, but my real money is on Apple not making a 4" iPhone ever again. The iPhone 5 and 5s are roughly the same size as the old 4" iPhone save for a centimeter or so on top.
     
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Jan 30, 2016, 01:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by DiabloConQueso View Post
One thing that needs to be addressed or thought about is how to make a 4" iPhone with a 16:9 screen aspect ratio.

Apple abandoned the 4:3 and 3:2 aspect ratios with the iPhone 5, and they haven't looked back yet. Would developers be on-board to, once again, go back and revise their apps to work on two different aspect ratios?

In my opinion, they would not. If Apple does release a 4" iPhone, I would put my money on it having a 16:9 screen aspect ratio, but my real money is on Apple not making a 4" iPhone ever again. The iPhone 5 and 5s are roughly the same size as the old 4" iPhone save for a centimeter or so on top.
The iPhone 5s is 4" and 16:9 aspect ratio. I'm not sure I understand.
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DiabloConQueso
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Jan 30, 2016, 03:48 PM
 
Wait, then what is this mythical 4" iPhone everyone is clamoring for, if it already exists as the 5 and 5s?
     
Charles Martin
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Jan 30, 2016, 07:29 PM
 
DCQ: this is exactly the point I made in the article. If you want a four-inch display phone for your kid, guess what ... Apple sells one! They've sold it for years! It even has Touch ID!

If there was a huge market for a smaller iPhone, the iPhone 5s would be outselling the iPhone 6, which is last year's model. Hint: it isn't.

I loved my iPhone 5s and was so loathe to give it up that I just passed it on to my wife instead of selling it as I usually do, but less than a day with the iPhone 6s actually in my hand and I was wondering why Apple didn't make something that fit my hand so well previously. In addition to the bigger display (which is great for app developers as well, and looks fantastic), there's more room inside for more battery (VERY noticeably better battery life here than on the 5s) and ways to dissipate the heat generated by more powerful processors and GPUs, so some of what the later iPhones do can't physically be accommodated it in a smaller form factor, even if it is (quite a bit) thicker.

I think some people are suffering from "magical thinking" on this issue ... they want everything the last two years have brought us, but they want it in a smaller form factor. Yeah, you know what? I don't fit into the pajamas I wore as a kid either.

I'm not AT ALL against a new four-inch device, but there's some engineering issues with trying to give people everything they say they want in there and some budgetary constraints where the public are going to expect this thing to cost MUCH less than the larger phones, so such a device will be by necessity a very compromised iPhone, and I'm not sure Apple wants to sell something like that.
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Jan 30, 2016, 09:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by DiabloConQueso View Post
Wait, then what is this mythical 4" iPhone everyone is clamoring for, if it already exists as the 5 and 5s?
I'm not buying an iOS device with less than 2GB of RAM unless it is REALLY cheap! It's just way to much money to spend on a device that will quickly be obsolete. I've witnessed how quickly Apple can kill a useful piece of hardware (even within the current product lineup) with iOS updates.

Originally Posted by Charles Martin View Post
DCQ: this is exactly the point I made in the article. If you want a four-inch display phone for your kid, guess what ... Apple sells one! They've sold it for years! It even has Touch ID!
See above. I'm not spending $600 (close to $700 with usable storage size) buying a nearly obsolete device for myself or my kid. My gosh, money doesn't grow on trees!

Originally Posted by Charles Martin View Post
I'm not AT ALL against a new four-inch device, but there's some engineering issues with trying to give people everything they say they want in there and some budgetary constraints where the public are going to expect this thing to cost MUCH less than the larger phones, so such a device will be by necessity a very compromised iPhone, and I'm not sure Apple wants to sell something like that.
Why does it have to cost less? I don't see many other barriers... it's primarily a marketing decision.
(Battery size difference is 1570 mAh vs 1715 mAh, a 9.2% increase, btw. I'm sure everyone expects a smaller device to have a bit less battery capacity, but if they need to hit certain numbers, they could always slightly reduce the clock speeds or such, or make it an option via software.)
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Sanjiv Sathiah
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Jan 30, 2016, 10:59 PM
 
With all due respect to @Chas who has written a compelling article, I’m with you on this one @Steve Wilkinson. Who wants to spend $$$ (even if it is for their children, for example) on an outdated piece of tech? The iPhone 5s might still be a very good device, but tech products only have a certain shelf-life, even if they are still decent. The whole industry is built on creating the perception of obsolescence and encouraging people to upgrade to the latest and greatest even if the device they already have works just fine. Apple’s iPhone upgrade program is a testament that this strategy works.

An upgraded device 4-inch device (even if our survey of Apple Store customers showed that not many customers are especially interested in such a device) still has an important role to play in Apple’s product line up. Given the amount of rumors on this subject, and a plausible spy shot to go with it, it seems that Apple seems to be thinking along those lines too. There is a market for a cheaper, but still up to date 4-inch device for plenty of customers, including plenty who would never turn up at a bricks and mortar Apple store where they could be surveyed, but buy their phone from a carrier in the burbs, or online.

As good as the iPhone 5s still is, there is no denying it is getting long in the tooth. It has received some steep price cuts in the Australian market recently, suggesting that sales for it are tapering off and/or Apple is clearing inventory ahead of a refresh. When you can buy an Android handset like the LG G4, that was an early 2015 high-end model for the same price as even the reduced price iPhone 5S on a plan/contract, it starts to become an even harder sell.

I can see the iPhone 5s being phased out after the arrival of the rumoured 5se/6c. Apple offers ongoing software support for its iPhones for at least two years, meaning the iPhone 5s is getting close to end of life. That it is still currently on sale shows that there is a market for a 4-inch model at the bottom of end of Apple’s line up (which is the mid-range of competitor line ups). An upgraded 4-inch model would also make sense, if for no other reason than such a model would also support Apple Pay, which is a key Apple ecosystem feature missing from the iPhone 5s.

Although Apple is predicting its first downturn in iPhone sales for this quarter, it doesn’t mean that they won’t be fighting tooth and nail to ensure that this dip is mitigated in every way possible. Having the strongest possible iPhone line up (top to bottom) will be critical to this.
( Last edited by Sanjiv Sathiah; Jan 31, 2016 at 07:32 PM. )
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Jan 31, 2016, 10:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Sanjiv Sathiah View Post
The iPhone 5s might still be a very good device, but tech products only have a certain shelf-life, even if they are still decent.
...
Apple offers ongoing software support for its iPhones for at least two years, meaning the iPhone 5s is getting close to end of life.
...
That it is still currently on sale shows that there is a market for a 4-inch model at the bottom of end of Apple’s line up (which is the mid-range of competitor line ups).
The big problem, IMO, isn't so much how long it works well, even if old, but more what happens with software updates. Apple tends to allow newer than it should software on devices that aren't capable of really running it. For example, Apple was still selling the iPad mini when iOS 8 was released. So, that's not even a case of it being too old, but of Apple actually selling too old of tech. (And, an iPad mini with iOS 8 or even 9, isn't still decent, at least not for anything serious where you have to type.)

So, the problem is more Apple's wanting to do low-cost via old stuff that they don't properly support with new software. I get them wanting to move on with the software, but then they have to reflect that on the hardware side as well. That would mean using more of the latest tech across the product line, and separating into the market segments with features, not age of tech.

And, I'm not sure we do really know much from Apple's current practice in terms of demand. Does the demand for the 5s show us people want 4" phones, or that people want a cheaper model? We won't know until Apple produces (if they ever do) realistic alternatives.

If Apple made a 4" 6s and it didn't sell well, then we'd know the demand is small (though, maybe still important!). And, if Apple made a budget phone, based on current tech, that sold well, then we'd know that was a good market. So, far, Apple has simply failed to do anything meaningful outside of the flagship models, that would give real indication or incentive.
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Feb 4, 2016, 02:41 PM
 
I'm on my second 4.7" iPhone (6s), after having had a 6, 5s, 4s, & 3g. I would consider going back to a smaller iPhone if the specs are solid. I'm a heavy user of the platform, but just prefer smaller devices. I also have an iPad mini. Guess I'm in the 10%.
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Feb 4, 2016, 02:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by rexray View Post
I'm on my second 4.7" iPhone (6s), after having had a 6, 5s, 4s, & 3g. I would consider going back to a smaller iPhone if the specs are solid.
That's a really good point, we have no idea what percentage of current 4.7" users would buy a 4" instead if they actually had a choice. 4.7" was forced on buyers who upgrade each year or two.
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Feb 9, 2016, 01:33 PM
 
There's definitely a market for smaller phones and manufacturers will prove this... just as soon as they figure out how to get the same battery life out of a physically smaller device.
     
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Feb 9, 2016, 01:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by just a poster View Post
There's definitely a market for smaller phones and manufacturers will prove this... just as soon as they figure out how to get the same battery life out of a physically smaller device.
I don't think it has much to do with battery life. They can tune the CPU/GPU to get the battery life they want, within reason. Also, the battery size isn't that much different between a 5s and 6s.
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