[Big Mac]

If you're in Apple stock and you're in at a profit, you're not really exposed to the dollar's decline, right? And if you're in Canada for example, your dollars now purchase more Apple stock than before, right? What's not to like from your perspective?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

If you're in Apple stock and you're in at a profit, you're not really exposed to the dollar, right?

I make all my purchases in Canadian dollars, which have to be converted to US$ for purchases of AAPL.

In US$ I'm pretty much even at the moment (since I bought a little before the earnings call in January). However, in CAD$ I'm down several percent.

I want to sell relatively soon, because I want a little extra cash in my pocket and for some renovations.

ie. I didn't predict that oil would hit $115 this soon. High oil means low US$ (and high CAD$, because Canada is the biggest supplier of oil to the US).

[Tesselator]

Really? I thought we were all told in October/November that Oil was "probably" going
to go over $100 by the end of the 1st quarter? I heard that loud and clear from several
sources anyway. shrug...


-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh, and here's the live graphs again:




AAPL in Blue

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

Really? I thought we were all told in October/November that Oil was "probably" going
to go over $100 by the end of the 1st quarter? I heard that loud and clear from several
sources anyway. shrug...

$100? Most definitely. However, $115 this quickly was still a surprise to me. The good news is that it's starting to ease again. Who knows if it will hover around the $110-115 mark for a while, or else head back into sub $110 prices. Or else some eBay scam compound in Nigeria next to an oil plant blows up from bad internet karma and sends oil to $120.

Anyways, today should be a reasonably good day.

GOOG blew away expectations, and is up over $80 to over $530 (18%) in after hours.
Citigroup lost 5.1 billion, but it's actually better than expectations, and is up 8% AH.
AMD met expectations, and is up 2% AH.
AAPL is now at $158.67, up 2.7% AH.
Honeywell is up 3.7% AH, as they beat expectations too.

And the US$ is gaining back a little bit of the value it lost over the past couple of days. It's now:

104.409 JPY
0.63601 EUR
0.50267 GBP
6.99450 CNY
1.01370 CAD

Finally, gold took a hit in price today. It's still keeping it's head above water, above the $900 mark (at ~US$914) but who knows how long that will be for. It already dipped as low as $906 earlier on.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

Sold off a bunch of AAPL at $159.22.

Now the question is whether or not to sell off a bunch more on Wed. (April, 23rd) or later. Either way, I'm not going to be in this for long haul.

[Tesselator]

Kewl deal! I like it when people win!

The only thing I don't get is the correlation between the devalued and falling
US dollar and the market prices. How long does it take for them to catch each
other anyway? In the last year or three the dollar has been devalued more than
50% if you listen to honest people who don't cook the books or if you do the
math yourself. The stock-market has reflected that for the most part and many
or most indicators and indices are up about double in that same amount of time.
Yet prices in the US market haven't doubled in the last 3 years right? Gas might
have but what about building materials, business art and school supplies, general
labor and repair services, all the stuff that isn't imported... Has it doubled in price?
If the internet is any indication just from what I have been able to see prices haven't
fluctuated more than about 10% in that time on average across the board.

Does this mean that everything really got cheeper?

Right, cuz if the dollar in now worth 50% of what it was that means for every dollar
you had you now have only a sawbuck. So a quart of milk if one dollar before should
now cost two. Or $100 worth of auto repairs should now be $200. But I see that they
aren't much more at all. Are they? Oh my, what does it all mean? When will things
adjust to reflect the actual numbers?

Or will it?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

$100? Most definitely. However, $115 this quickly was still a surprise to me. The good news is that it's starting to ease again. Who knows if it will hover around the $110-115 mark for a while, or else head back into sub $110 prices. Or else some eBay scam compound in Nigeria next to an oil plant blows up from bad internet karma and sends oil to $120.

Crude surges to a record $117 after Nigerian group blows up pipeline

The price of crude oil surged to a new record of $117 (U.S.) a barrel Friday, after a militant group in Nigeria said it had sabotaged a major oil pipeline operated by a Royal Dutch Shell PLC joint venture and promised further attacks on the country's petroleum industry.

Damn those militant eBay scammers!

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

In the last year or three the dollar has been devalued more than 50% if you listen to honest people who don't cook the books or if you do the math yourself.

[Tesselator]

Hehehe I love that image! That's awesome!

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Sold off a bunch of AAPL at $159.22.

Now the question is whether or not to sell off a bunch more on Wed. (April, 23rd) or later. Either way, I'm not going to be in this for long haul.

Sold again at $167.02. I chickened out on waiting for the earnings call, and like I said, I wasn't going long on this one anyway.

Knowing my luck, now that I've sold, AAPL will now go to $195.

EDIT:

Heh. Shortly after I sold, it hit $168. I suspect it will hit resistance by $169.99 though.

[torsoboy]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Sold again at $167.02. I chickened out on waiting for the earnings call, and like I said, I wasn't going long on this one anyway.

Knowing my luck, now that I've sold, AAPL will now go to $195.

EDIT:

Heh. Shortly after I sold, it hit $168. I suspect it will hit resistance by $169.99 though.

No resistance at $169.99... it is just over $180 this morning. Any other guesses on when this run will end? So far I have made (on paper) $47 a share since I bought in March and I am getting nervous already. I thought it was overpriced at $200 in December, so I'm not sure how long I am willing to stay in.

Visa is also doing spectacular... I'm in for the longer haul with that one.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

No resistance at $169.99... it is just over $180 this morning. Any other guesses on when this run will end? So far I have made (on paper) $47 a share since I bought in March and I am getting nervous already. I thought it was overpriced at $200 in December, so I'm not sure how long I am willing to stay in.

Visa is also doing spectacular... I'm in for the longer haul with that one.

There was resistance at $169.99... for the (very) short term. However, after not too long it broke through... and then broke through both $175 and $180 barriers as well.

Anyways, if you're getting nervous, it doesn't hurt to lock in some profits. You don't have to sell it all, but locking in part of it will guarantee you'll stay in the black. That is if you're not in it for the long haul. I wasn't, because some of the monies are going into renovations, and the rest will go into my mortgage.

BTW, it's nice to see oil and gold coming back down now.

Oil is at $112 (after hitting about $110 yesterday).
Gold is at $855, after briefly dropping below $850.

I really feel sorry for those who bought gold at $1000. Well, maybe not.

[Nodnarb]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

No resistance at $169.99... it is just over $180 this morning. Any other guesses on when this run will end? So far I have made (on paper) $47 a share since I bought in March and I am getting nervous already. I thought it was overpriced at $200 in December, so I'm not sure how long I am willing to stay in.

Visa is also doing spectacular... I'm in for the longer haul with that one.

I just got out right under $180. Tried to sell at $180.xx, but when I made the call the official number I got out at is $179.67. For buying at $130, that's not too shabby.

[torsoboy]

Originally Posted by Eug 

There was resistance at $169.99... for the (very) short term. However, after not too long it broke through... and then broke through both $175 and $180 barriers as well.

Anyways, if you're getting nervous, it doesn't hurt to lock in some profits. You don't have to sell it all, but locking in part of it will guarantee you'll stay in the black. That is if you're not in it for the long haul.

Well, I would sell just some of it, but since I only have 15 shares (lol), selling a part of it and not the whole thing seems kinda silly.

It was my very first stock purchase and I didn't want to lose everything on my first attempt. But I wont buy more APPL at the current price.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Gold is at $855, after briefly dropping below $850.

I really feel sorry for those who bought gold at $1000. Well, maybe not.

Yeah, not. It's at an artificial low. I dunno exactly how long it will last but
experts say not more than three years. Most say it will creep up to about
$1200 or $1500 by the beginning of 2009 and then sometime within the
the following 2 years it will be normalized at between $2500 and $3500.
So if you buy now at $850 you're looking at a 300% increase before four
years pass. That's not too bad.

Oil will double again and by the end of the year Americans will be paying
$200 a barrel for crude.

The Swiss frank government bonds have done nicely and will continue to
increase as well as hold their value against the falling dollar - which will
continue to fall if it doesn't crash suddenly, over the next 3 or 4 years.

In any case there's no reason to feel sorry for gold buyers - it's only down
for a very short period. I guess within a 2 months it will be back up to the
$1k mark. Also to remember is that gold isn't really an "investment" per say,
it's more of a hedge against the continually falling US dollar. People who buy
gold are essentially saying: "I don't trust the US government nor the corporate
"international" bankers that owns it".

[peeb]

Experts? Which experts?

[ThinkInsane]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I really feel sorry for those who bought gold at $1000. Well, maybe not.

How do you feel for those of us that bought a couple hundred pounds at $275

I'd prefer to see it still at a grand, but still not too shabby!

[Powerbook]

What a fokked up day at the stock exchanges was today??? Man, my whole EU/US-portfolio hit some -6%. For the European stocks the "explanation" was as usual "Man them Amaracan's are going down, so we have to sell, too". But what was your excuse???


Regards
PB.

[Eug]

AAPL actually went up today (+1.25%). And so did the TSX (+0.42%).

Anyways, when oil goes up, the US stock markets don't like it. Oil is up around $129 at the moment. Gold is back up a bit too, at around $920.

[Tesselator]

About $940 yesterday... About $920 today... yeah...

If the market don't like it when the oil goes up I guess there's going to be
a whole bunch of disliking going on. They have said in fairly no uncertain
terms that they "plan" to bring it up to $200 a barrel in short order.

I guess that's 3 to 6 months. (?)

AAPL seems to be quite a roller-coaster. I guess that's good for short-term
investors yeah?

[turtle777]

Thought this thread would make an interesting bump, now that we have the crash underway.

Apple fell to $ 110 today.

I'm glad I listened to mad-man Cramer and got rid of it at $ 170.

-t

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Apple fell to $ 110 today.

-t

Yes, after some dumb analysts who probably have a short position on Apple downgraded the stock.

I SO want to see Apple beat everyone's ORIGINAL expectations to prove them wrong.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Apple fell to $ 105 today.

Fixed.

I bought at $131. Oops. (I was predicting a drop into the 120s, but not below 110.)

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Yes, after some dumb analysts who probably have a short position on Apple downgraded the stock.

Honestly, I can see how Apple gets in trouble with a faltering economy.

When you lose your job, you use your money to survive, not to buy the latest gadget.

-t

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Honestly, I can see how Apple gets in trouble with a faltering economy.

When you lose your job, you use your money to survive, not to buy the latest gadget.

-t

Yes, but it will still be interesting to see what happens. Downturn or not, analysts have ALWAYS been unfair on Apple.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Yes, but it will still be interesting to see what happens. Downturn or not, analysts have ALWAYS been unfair on Apple.

This might be the 1% of the time they are right

-t

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

I SO want to see Apple beat everyone's ORIGINAL expectations to prove them wrong.

Apple has done that many times in the past, but there is no question that it would be difficult to meet previous sales projections considering the fear permeating through the economy right now.

I thought it would be unlikely that we would ever see AAPL this cheap again (aside from the AAPL doomsday scenario we've discussed before).

[turtle777]

If Congress doesn't get their act together, we'll see a major recession and further crash.

-t

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

This might be the 1% of the time they are right

-t

Right or not, if they downgraded any other computer manufacturer similarly for the same reasons they downgraded Apple today, would we have seen as big a drop in stock price?

[Eug]

Weird. I guess it pays to diversify. One of my stocks actually went up today, and it wasn't a gold stock.

[ctt1wbw]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Honestly, I can see how Apple gets in trouble with a faltering economy.

When you lose your job, you use your money to survive, not to buy the latest gadget.

-t

That's why I strip at the old folks home. Takes lots of tupperware containers to get the quarters to the bank, but in the end, it's worth it.

[ctt1wbw]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Yes, but it will still be interesting to see what happens. Downturn or not, analysts have ALWAYS been unfair on Apple.

Yeah, for what now, the past 20 or 25 years?

[ctt1wbw]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Right or not, if they downgraded any other computer manufacturer similarly for the same reasons they downgraded Apple today, would we have seen as big a drop in stock price?

Most likely not. I've been watching Dell and Mircosoft and Intel for several years now. I don't think I've seen any of them go up over 30 per share. None of them are doing well while Apple has hit, what? 205 per share at it's peak? I mean, how low can those three stocks go?

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Honestly, I can see how Apple gets in trouble with a faltering economy.

When you lose your job, you use your money to survive, not to buy the latest gadget.

You're right, but Apple's financial situation is solid: they have a few billions in the bank, they have repaid all their debts quite a while ago. Even if they take a hit, I don't think it will put the company at risk in any way.

[olePigeon]

Microsoft's stock is higher because they just bought back a few billion dollar worth of their stock.

[Tesselator]

Ooo... APPL is in the mid $80's right now? Ouch. It's ok tho, I heard they were going to artificially prop up the market a few more times before they ditch the US dollar, bring in the Amero, and declare Martial Law. Did you guys know that "they" (the banking elites) threatened congressional members directly with Martial Law and a Market Crash (by not doing the usual daily prop injections) and then went ahead and declared a House Martial Law - all just to get the "Rescue" passed? If you were listening to Congress on the radio you heard it mentioned several times by 2 different congressmen.

So a few more prop-ups and then hyper-inflation or super-hyper-ultra-stagflation? I guess those who bought gold are looking pretty good right about now - yes? And just wait till they stop artificially holding it low... Sources say: It'll hit $2k per oz. within 6 to 8 months... sources say...

[Eug]

Gotta love it: Cramer the Contrarian

Poor Jim Cramer wasn't getting much respect on Monday.

...But others believe that Mr. Cramer's strong urge to sell stocks may be a strong “buy” signal.

“The market down 30 per cent, the VIX spiking to 56, and Cramer giving a panicky SELL on TV this morning. We have a 9,500 downside target, and the likelihood of an emergency action makes us want to get long – at least for a trade,” said Barry Ritholtz, author of The Big Picture blog. “We are putting a toe in the water here.”

Meanwhile, Bespoke Investment Group suggests that Mr. Cramer previously may have been the missing ingredient in the long-awaited blowout, necessary for a market bottom and subsequent recovery.

"We'll see how the market closes, but these type of hysteria comments to Main Street, America, from a renowned bull may cause just the type of panic that we noted this market was currently lacking," Bespoke said on its blog, Think B.I.G.

---

*Cramer has a reputation of following the market, but not predicting it very well. (Who does?) I'm just amused though that some of the investment types are now using him as a signal to do the opposite.

[Tesselator]

LOL... Jim Cramer... Hehehhe... he should go back to The Examiner and do his gruesome death gore articles.

He's a stooge... pay no attention...

[Shaddim]

With the exception of a few stocks and funds, as of today I'm officially out. I made a lot of money over the last few years, but now It's time to consolidate and hold.


I may jump back in later this year, but right now it doesn't look favorable.

Good luck.

[olePigeon]

I was kinda depressed looking at my CalPERS/401(k), but then I realized how lucky I am. I've only been saving for 9 years. The market will rebound, but more importantly, while I'm working through this slump I'm gonna rack up a crap load of stock while everything's low. In 30 years I should have a pretty damn nice retirement. Shoot, maybe even in only 20 years. I could retire early!

(Assuming we don't break out in another world war.)

[Sealobo]

the stock price....

[PB2K]

exactly why are people posting the current AAPL stock prices by the minute here??
just relax

[Eug]

Originally Posted by PB2K 

exactly why are people posting the current AAPL stock prices by the minute here??
just relax

What do you expect for stock market threads on an Apple board?

P.S. Speaking about AAPL... For some strange reason it's up a bit pre-market. I might have expected the opposite, since overseas markets dropped significantly.

[residentEvil]

my 401k isn't doing as bad as i thought it would be. i've actually gone up with my real estate, fixed income and money market asset classes. guaranteed took a hit, but obviously, equities took the biggest hit. losing about $2300 a day. i was expecting a lot worse.

[torsoboy]

The majority of my money is in high-interest savings accounts. It is earning about 3.4% right now, which is much better than losing 20%, which is what my stocks are doing.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

The majority of my money is in high-interest savings accounts. It is earning about 3.4% right now

That's "high-interest"?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

That's "high-interest"?

In North America, yes, and it's much more than you'd get in a treasury bill/savings bond or whatever. No it's, not the 7% you'd get with Icesave in Britain, but then again the money isn't locked away right now in a failing bank either.

[torsoboy]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

That's "high-interest"?

Yep... high for a liquid savings account. Standard savings accounts get less than 1%. And it's definitely higher than stocks/mutal funds are doing right now.

What interest rates do your savings accounts give you?

[RAILhead]

For a savings account yes -- but if that's where you're investing, then you're screwed. Your gains in interest won't offset inflation, and in 10 years, you'll owe yourself money.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

Yep... high for a liquid savings account. Standard savings accounts get less than 1%. And it's definitely higher than stocks/mutal funds are doing right now.

What interest rates do your savings accounts give you?

About 6.5%ish.

I don't have much in savings accounts, mind. I prefer to put it elsewhere.

[Tesselator]

I just have a large safe full of gold and a mattress stuffed with wads of cash.

Banks are for losers!