|
|
Teh Economic Situashun
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Standing on the shoulders of giants
Status:
Offline
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Games Meister
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Eternity
Status:
Offline
|
|
It might be bad for oil companies, but its better for the US economy overall.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Standing on the shoulders of giants
Status:
Offline
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Games Meister
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Eternity
Status:
Offline
|
|
Originally Posted by mattyb
I wasn't focusing on the US economy.
It's what I probably understand best though.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: Isle of Manhattan
Status:
Offline
|
|
well, if it's good for the American people, Wall street tanks - and vice versa.
|
"Faster, faster! 'Till the thrill of speed overcomes the fear of death." - HST
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Standing on the shoulders of giants
Status:
Offline
|
|
A while ago there was an article about if oil went above or below a certain level that it wasn't good, due to Middle-Easterners investing in US stocks. There was a sweet spot that people were happy with.
That FT article that I linked to above is pretty good with a break-down for oil producers and the larger economies.
I do nearly 40 miles per day with my car*, so the price drop has really been appreciated. I paid 1.08€ per litre at the last fill-up. Thats about $5 per gallon I think.
*Yes, I realise that this isn't much for the North Americans.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: planning a comeback !
Status:
Offline
|
|
My prediction: full economic crash ahead in the next 12-15 months.
Low oil price is a margin call on $3Tr. debt accumulated in the oil and gas industry.
This will not only take down explorers and producers, but also banks and financial institutions, just like the subprime debt crisis did in 2007/2008.
In the process, multiple countries will have a full fledged currency crisis with bond defaults. This will further fuel the crash.
-t
(
Last edited by turtle777; Dec 19, 2014 at 02:56 PM.
)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Standing on the shoulders of giants
Status:
Offline
|
|
So, NOT good, for any economy?
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Shaddim's sock drawer
Status:
Offline
|
|
It's good for the Saudi economy, even at less money /brl.
|
"I have a dream, that my four little children will one day live in a
nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin,
but by the content of their character." - M.L.King Jr
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Managing Editor
Join Date: Jul 2012
Status:
Offline
|
|
Not to mention, helps to quell any need for oil independence or alternative fuels.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: planning a comeback !
Status:
Offline
|
|
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants
It's good for the Saudi economy, even at less money /brl.
Not really.
In general, the middle eastern oil countries have maneuvered themselves into a big predicament.
Their life style and the approval of the (dumb) masses was purchased by handouts financed by oil.
If oil remains low, they will have a crisis a la Egypt on their hands.
The only reason why they are not curbing oil production is because they can't afford it. They are addicted to oil income.
-t
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Professional Poster
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: UKland
Status:
Offline
|
|
Originally Posted by turtle777
My prediction: full economic crash ahead in the next 12-15 months.
Low oil price is a margin call on $3B debt accumulated in the oil and gas industry.
-t
Isn't 3B$ rather a small amount? spread across a hugely profitable industry?
|
This space for Hire! Reasonable rates. Reach an audience of literally dozens!
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: The Rock
Status:
Offline
|
|
Yeah I think we discussed this a while back. Middle East technically has the "cheap oil", but they have essentially modernized public welfare services based on having massive oil revenues. Once oil goes below $80-90 they're running brutal deficits.
|
Mankind's only chance is to harness the power of stupid.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Addicted to MacNN
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Washington, DC
Status:
Offline
|
|
Too many unknowns. It's unclear how willing Saudi Arabia is to shoulder even more the burden of lowering production (their break-even point is less than the aggregate shown on Turtle's graph, and they have large cash reserves), how price-responsive U.S. shale oil production currently is, and how price-responsive Chinese demand currently is.
|
"One ticket to Washington, please. I have a date with destiny."
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Games Meister
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Eternity
Status:
Offline
|
|
Call me when turtle predicts something good for a change. He's been doom and gloom forever, so eventually he'll be right.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: planning a comeback !
Status:
Offline
|
|
Originally Posted by Doc HM
Isn't 3B$ rather a small amount? spread across a hugely profitable industry?
Indeed. But it's a typo. Estimates range from $800B up to $3Trillion.
Corrected. above post.
As a comparison: Subprime debt was estimated up to $1.5T. So half of it.
-t
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Rules
|
|
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|